Black smoke rises following an Israeli airstrike that targeted a house in the southern Lebanese village of Khiam, near the Lebanese-Israeli border, on June 21, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Hezbollah militants.
Rabih Hence | AFP | Getty Images
Almost daily gun battles along Lebanon’s border with northern Israel have intensified at an alarming rate in recent weeks, escalating threats between Israel and Hezbollah and forcing the US to call for an urgent diplomatic solution.
An all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah – the Iran-backed Lebanese Shiite militant and political organization designated a terrorist group by the US and Britain – would be devastating for both sides.
The threat of war breaking out between Israel and Hezbollah – a far larger and more heavily armed force than Hamas – is so great that US President Joe Biden last week sent one of his top advisers, Amos Hochstein, to Israel and Lebanon to push for a war solution.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters on Tuesday that “diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent further escalation” and stressed that “we urgently seek a diplomatic agreement that restores lasting calm to Israel’s northern border and civilians.” allows them to return safely to their border.” Houses on both sides of the Israel-Lebanon border.”
Hezbollah has fired thousands of rockets into Israel in the nearly nine months since Israel began its war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza on October 7. The rockets fired from Lebanon killed 18 Israeli soldiers and 10 civilians, according to Israel. A Reuters tally said the shelling killed about 300 Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon and around 80 civilians.
At least 150,000 residents of southern Lebanon and northern Israel have been evacuated from their homes and are internally displaced due to the regular cross-border fires.
“A full-scale war between Israel and Hezbollah would be a catastrophic event for the region, including Israel and Lebanon,” Victor Tricaud, senior analyst at consulting firm Control Risks, told CNBC.
“It only takes one stray rocket”
The most extreme war scenario? Tricaud describes a large-scale ground invasion and airstrikes by Israel against Lebanon, heavy bombing by Hezbollah with regular direct attacks on Israel’s civilian infrastructure, and possibly even the direct involvement of Iran, which would have a significant impact on the global economy.
In a conflict of this magnitude, national infrastructure on both sides – such as water, electricity and communications – as well as homes and military targets would be severely damaged or destroyed.
Smoke and flames rise after Hezbollah carried out a rocket attack on the city of Safed in northern Israel on June 12, 2024.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
But for now, this remains a “comparatively distant scenario,” Tricaud said, “and many more escalatory steps are likely to take place before the confrontation reaches such a level of intensity.”
Leaders on both sides say they don’t want an all-out war. Their mutual attacks in recent months, while at times deadly, are still widely seen as carefully calculated to avoid a major escalation.
All it takes is for a single stray missile to cause significant casualties and for the enemy to retaliate in kind for things to spiral out of control.
Nimrod Novik
Fellow, Israel Policy Forum
Meanwhile, Lebanon is in the midst of an economic and political crisis, and its infrastructure is completely unprepared for a new war. A major Israeli incursion into the country would be catastrophic, particularly in southern Lebanon – a key Hezbollah stronghold – and would pose a serious threat to the militant organization’s popularity and support there.
“Today, each side aims to teach the other that it can inflict greater pain within the adopted rules of engagement of a limited fight,” said Nimrod Novik, a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum, which is dedicated to promoting a two-pronged fight. State outcome of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
“However, all it takes is a single stray missile causing significant casualties and a counterstrike from the enemy for things to spiral out of control.”
Hezbollah: 10 times stronger than Hamas
Hezbollah is considered one of the most heavily armed non-state groups in the world. It is estimated to have ten times the military capabilities of Hamas, and most previous wars between Israel and Hezbollah have ended without a clear victory for either side.
However, the outcome of a 34-day war between the two adversaries in 2006, in which Israeli ground troops fought in Lebanon, was seen as a victory by Hezbollah and viewed as a strategic failure in Israel. The militant group is now significantly stronger and equipped with more advanced weapons than it was in 2006.
A man waves a flag of the Hezbollah movement as its leader Hassan Nasrallah delivers a televised address in Kherbet Selm, southern Lebanon, on January 14, 2024, marking the week-long day of remembrance since the assassination of top field commander Wissam Tawil.
Mahmoud Zayyat | Afp | Getty Images
Tricaud said Hezbollah fighters have “become increasingly battle-hardened after taking part in the war in Syria and will be able to use asymmetric warfare tactics very effectively thanks to the movement’s long-standing territorial control over southern Lebanon.”
He added that the cost of an all-out war to the Israeli population would be “far higher than in 2006.”
Retired Israel Defense Forces Colonel Miri Eisin, who currently heads Israel’s International Counterterrorism Institute, highlighted the threat posed by Hezbollah’s arsenal in the event of a full-scale war.
“We are talking about weapons that we have not seen in this area,” she said, describing Hezbollah’s possible use of mortars, rockets, guided missiles, drone swarms, suicide drones and even ground troops to dismantle Israel’s defenses.
At the same time, “Israel will strike an immense number of Hezbollah targets,” Eisin said. “And Hezbollah has surface-to-air missiles that it has used very rarely, from both Iran and Russia.”
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Despite Israel’s formidable air defense systems, there will still be “capabilities that penetrate inside Israel, which means we will suffer losses in the heart of Israel,” she said.
In such a context, US support for Israel will be crucial. It also raises the stakes if other Iran-backed proxy groups get involved and attack American assets.
Recent reports quoted anonymous U.S. officials as saying the Biden administration would help Israel defend itself against Hezbollah retaliation. This could include stockpiling the Iron Dome air defense system, providing intelligence information – and possibly targeting Hezbollah itself in the event of major attacks against Israel. CNBC has reached out to the US Department of Defense for comment.
Novik from the Israel Policy Forum still believes that the diplomatic path to de-escalation and a solution has not yet been exhausted.
“Indeed,” he said, “the tragic irony is that the greater the risk of escalation, the more room the parties will create for diplomacy. It’s a typical situation where it’s too close for comfort.”
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2024-06-27 14:17:56
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