An aerial photo shows a Philippine Navy ship grounded since 1999 to assert the country’s sovereignty over Second Thomas Shoal, a remote reef in the South China Sea also claimed by China.
Jay Directo | Afp | Getty Images
China has stepped up its aggression against the Philippines in the contested waters of the South China Sea, calling into question the strength of American deterrence, according to political analysts.
Last week, the Chinese coast guard seized two Philippine ships on a resupply mission to an outpost at Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, seriously injuring a naval personnel, according to Philippine officials. The shoal is claimed by both Manila and Beijing.
There have been several clashes in the area in recent months. Experts say the latest incident represents an escalation and shows the limits of the 1951 mutual defense treaty between the United States and the Philippines.
“The failure of the MDT to deter this [latest confrontation] shows the vagueness of the two parties’ communicated commitments,” said Chester Cabalza, president and founder of the Philippines-based think tank International Development and Security Cooperation.
Last year, the Philippines and the United States released new “Bilateral Defense Guidelines” reaffirming that an “armed attack” on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea would result in mutual U.S. defense obligations
China, for its part, has been careful not to trigger the MDT by refraining from using weapons, but has instead used “grey zone” tactics at Second Thomas Shoal – coercive measures that do not constitute armed conflict. This reportedly included the use of water cannons and ramming of Filipino boats.
The mystery of the “grey zone” in the USA
Beijing’s moves are aimed at stopping resupply missions for a rusting Philippine ship that has been stranded on the shoal since 1999, as its existence there appears to bolster the Philippines’ claim to the reef.
Cabalza said Beijing will continue to use “gray zone” tactics in its attempt to seize the shoal and other areas disputed by the Philippines unless Manila and Washington do more to strengthen deterrence.
“The use of these tactics should be classified as an armed attack [in the MDT] if the US is serious about helping the Philippines in its strategic and asymmetric war with China,” he said.
GP: Philippine Coast Guard personnel ride an inflatable boat past a Chinese Coast Guard vessel during a resupply mission for troops deployed at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024.
Ezra Acayan | Getty Images News | Getty Images
An expanded definition of an “armed attack” in the treaty could include “any intentional act that causes injury or death to Filipinos,” said Richard Heydarian, a policy adviser and lecturer in international affairs at the University of the Philippines.
These guidelines are consistent with the MDT’s interpretation in a U.S. Indo-Pacific Command report that was unclassified last year.
However, according to Heydarian, a muted response from the Philippines to last week’s clash could be a sign that the Philippines has concerns about invoking the mutual defense treaty.
“The Philippine government is facing a huge dilemma. It wants more assurances from the United States, but it is unlikely to get them, and it also wants to avoid unwanted escalation,” Heydarian said.
“It is extremely important for the Philippines and the US to signal that Philippine troops are authorized and sanctioned to use live firearms in self-defense and that the use of live firearms by China would immediately trigger the MDT,” he added.
However, according to Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia Program, the US is unlikely to expand the scope of the defense pact because doing so could involve it in a major military conflict.
Independence
Given a “sober assessment of the risk of U.S. non-intervention,” the Philippines will also seek to strengthen its own deterrence and strategy to assert its territorial claims, according to Matteo Piasentini, China and Indo-Pacific analyst at Geopolitica, an Italian think tank.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Thursday that while the latest incident at the shoal was not an “armed attack,” the country must “do more” than protest China’s actions.
A Chinese Coast Guard ship fires a water cannon at Unaizah May 4, a Philippine Navy-chartered ship, conducting a routine resupply mission for troops deployed at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, March 5, 2024.
Ezra Acayan | Getty Images News | Getty Images
“The Philippines will continue to resupply the Sierra Madre and hopefully invest in additional outposts in its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea… There is no illusion that China will give up; What Manila is trying to do is not give on its own,” Paisentini said.
The Philippine defense chief has reiterated that the military will not announce its resupply missions for the shoal in advance. According to the Lowy Institute’s Yaacob, this could help outmaneuver Beijing while avoiding direct confrontations.
With US support, the country is also working to strengthen its own defense capabilities in the South China Sea
What’s at stake?
According to Geopolitica’s Paisentini, the Second Thomas Shoal is emblematic of how major powers are being incorporated into the security architecture in Asia, with states like the Philippines increasingly turning to the U.S. and other powers to increase deterrence and security.
“No intervention [ if China gets more aggressive] “This would represent a massive blow not only to U.S.-Philippine relations, but also to relations between the U.S. and other key regional allies,” he added.
From China’s perspective, the shoal represents its ability to assert territorial claims under its “nine-dash line” and delegitimize decisions by organizations such as UNCLOS, which determined that Second Thomas Reef falls under Philippine sovereignty in 2016, experts told CNBC.
They also want to prevent the US from using the Philippines as a critical part of the “first island chain” – an island chain that includes parts of Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia – which is seen as strategically important to containing the reach of the PLA, said the researcher Muhammad Faizal.
The research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies added: “It’s likely that every ally and partner is watching how committed the US is to its military alliances and planning ahead in case the commitment falters.”
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2024-06-30 23:12:43
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