Supporters raise French flags as former president of the French far-right Rassemblement National (RN) faction Marine Le Pen delivers a speech on results night of the first round of parliamentary elections in Henin-Beaumont, northern France, on June 30. 2024.
Francois Lo Presti | Afp | Getty Images
The first round of early parliamentary elections in France saw a strong increase in votes for the anti-immigrant Rassemblement National party, with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance coming third.
Early polling data from national broadcaster France 2 showed National Rally (RN) won 34% of the vote, while the left-wing alliance New Popular Front (NFP) won 28.1%. Macron’s centrist “Together” bloc reached 20.3%, according to initial forecasts.
On Monday morning, the French Interior Ministry released updated figures showing that RN and its allies had won 33.1% of the vote, the NFP was in second place with 28% and Macron’s coalition had reached 20%.
According to Antonio Barroso, deputy research director at Teneo, the second round of elections on July 7th is worth keeping an eye on.
“First round victories usually say little about the overall result (a surprising number of victories by a particular party are missing). That’s why the main topic to watch on Sunday night, along with the overall percentage of votes for each party, is “how many candidates from each party will make it to the second round,” he said in a statement Wednesday.
“If, as expected, Together performs poorly in the first round, there will be plenty of races between the NFP and the RN.”
Ahead of the first round, French voter polls suggested that the far-right Régional National party would win about 35% of the vote in the election, with the left-wing NFP Alliance and a coalition of pro-Macron parties in third place.
Therefore, the National Assembly is widely expected to significantly increase the number of its seats in the 577-seat French parliament, the National Assembly, from the current 89.
Marine Le Pen, President of the National Rally Group in the National Assembly, meets with Jordan Bardella, President of the National Rally (Rassemblement National), at the final rally ahead of the upcoming European Parliament elections on June 9 at Le Dôme de Paris – Palais of Sports, on June 2, 2024.
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Still, Sunday forecasts suggest that no party has won an absolute majority of at least 289 seats after a first round of voting, pointing to a stalemate in parliament and a period of political and economic uncertainty after the votes.
French President Emmanuel Macron will remain in office until 2027 regardless of the election result, but could face pressure to elect a new prime minister from the National Assembly (even if the party fails to achieve an absolute majority in the final vote), with the most likely candidate being the 28-year-old President of RN, Jordan Bardella.
This new prime minister would have significant influence over France’s domestic and economic policies, while Macron would remain in charge of foreign policy and defense. In any case, so-called “coexistence” could make governing difficult and raise some concerns among economists about what impact the vote could have on the euro zone’s second-largest economy.
French President Emmanuel Macron waits for guests to arrive at a conference on support for Ukraine with European leaders and government officials on February 26, 2024 in Paris, France.
Chesnot | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Macron shocked Europe’s political establishment when he called for early voting in early June after his Renaissance Party was defeated by the National Rally in European Parliament elections.
Political analysts said Macron’s move was an extreme gamble as the president was betting that French citizens would fear and ultimately reject the prospect of a far-right government. Instead, he appears to have encouraged his political rivals.
—CNBC’s Charlotte Reed contributed to this article
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2024-07-01 07:00:47
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