Summer seems to be going smoothly for the labor market, even if that horizon is not far away.
Economists polled by Bloomberg expect the government’s monthly jobs report on Friday to show that employers added 190,000 workers in May. That would be a modest decline from the average of 242,000 jobs over the past six months – subject to revisions – as the country moves to what looks like a new normal.
“There’s a good case to be made that this thing will keep chugging along,” said Michael Pugliese, senior economist at Wells Fargo. “As the months go by here, the consensus is leaning toward a longer-term stable labor market.”
The unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in April from 3.4 percent in the previous year. Wage growth has slowed significantly, particularly for lower-income workers, but remains stronger than recent historical averages.
Adding to the balanced picture: In April, the ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers fell to pre-pandemic levels after peaking at more than two to one in early 2022. Employers aren’t hiring very quickly, but they aren’t firing many people either, and workers are less likely to quit their jobs than they were in 2019.
Unless hiring is unexpectedly low in May, the data is unlikely to impact the Federal Reserve’s rate decision next week.
“We are either at or approaching a point where the Fed no longer wants to see any further deterioration in the labor market,” Mr. Pugliese said. Rather, policymakers will focus on making progress in containing inflation, he said.
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2024-06-07 09:05:06
www.nytimes.com
