Intelligence officials from the United States and its allies are monitoring an increase in low-level sabotage operations in Europe that they say are part of a Russian campaign to undermine support for Ukraine’s war effort.
The covert operations were largely arson or attempted arson attacks, targeting a variety of locations including a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, houses in Latvia and, most curiously, an Ikea store in Lithuania.
But people accused of being Russian agents were also arrested for plotting attacks on US military bases.
Although the acts may seem arbitrary, American and European security officials say they are part of a concerted effort by Russia to slow arms shipments to Kiev and create the appearance of growing European opposition to support for Ukraine. And officials say Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU, is leading the campaign.
At least so far, the attacks have not disrupted the flow of weapons into Ukraine, and in fact many of the targets are not directly related to the war. But some security officials say Russia is trying to incite fear and force European nations to increase security across the arms supply chain, leading to higher costs and a slowing of the pace of arms deliveries.
NATO and European leaders have warned of the growing threat. Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas said last week that Russia was waging a “shadow war” against Europe. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced the arrest of twelve people accused of “beatings, arson and attempted arson” for Russian intelligence.
And Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said Russia posed “a real and serious threat” after his country warned of possible attacks on energy producers and weapons factories.
Amid growing concerns about sabotage, NATO ambassadors will meet with Avril D. Haines, the U.S. intelligence director, next month. Ms. Haines will deliver an intelligence briefing on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but also discuss Moscow’s covert sabotage campaign in Europe.
Security officials would not advise their intelligence agencies to link the sabotage to the GRU, but American and British spy agencies have penetrated deep into the GRU. Before the war in Ukraine, the United States and Britain released declassified intelligence information that revealed various GRU plans to create a false pretext for invading Russia.
Despite the GRU’s risk-taking reputation, U.S. and European security officials said Russia was proceeding with some caution in its sabotage. It wants to draw attention to the mysterious fires, but not so much attention that it could be directly blamed.
Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a former U.S. intelligence official, said Russia’s plan could be to weaken European resolve. Although that outcome may be doubtful, she said it was important for Europe and the United States to come together to respond to the sabotage campaign.
“Russia’s strategy is one of divide and conquer,” said Ms. Kendall-Taylor, now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. “At the moment it is not a very costly strategy for Russia because we are all reacting individually. That’s why it’s important that we consolidate the response over time.”
Hoping to do just that, British and other European diplomats are urging countries to more aggressively denounce Russian covert operations.
One of the first recent acts of sabotage attributed to Russia was a March fire at a warehouse in London. Authorities say the camp is linked to supplies to Ukraine, but provided few details.
Security officials briefed on the incident said GRU agents used a Russian diplomatic building in Sussex, England, to recruit locals for the arson. Four British men have been charged with arson, and one of them has been charged with assisting a foreign intelligence service.
In response, Britain expelled a Russian military officer working for intelligence services and closed several Russian diplomatic buildings, including the GRU operations center in Sussex.
The use of local recruits was a hallmark of the recent sabotage campaign, security officials said. U.S. and European officials said this was partly aimed at making attacks more difficult to detect and making it appear that they were the result of domestic opposition to support for Ukraine.
Acts of sabotage by Russia in Europe are not uncommon. In 2014, Russian military intelligence blew up an ammunition depot in the Czech Republic, although the country did not publicly blame Russia for it until seven years later.
European governments have expelled Russian spies from their capitals after a former Russian intelligence officer was poisoned in Salisbury, England, in 2018, and again after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The expulsions would have dramatically reduced Russia’s ability to launch attacks limited, said Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“There were significant disruptions to Russian intelligence activities in Europe,” Bergmann said. “That caused a pause and Russian intelligence became preoccupied with the war in Ukraine. Now they have their footing again and are probably trying to rebuild themselves.”
Since the invasion, Russia has appeared careful not to expand the war into NATO territory. But Ms. Kendall-Taylor said Russia wanted to undermine the alliance and its support for Ukraine.
In the first part of the war, the Russian military performed poorly and its intelligence services were too distracted to conduct covert operations in the West. But due to recent successes on the battlefield and a recovering military industry, the country has committed more resources to covert operations.
“They want to take the war to Europe, but they don’t want a war with NATO,” Ms. Kendall-Taylor said. “So they do all these things that go beyond conventional attacks.”
However, it will be difficult to find an appropriate answer. The US and Europe have already imposed sanctions on Russia and expelled Russian spies.
“We are in a very delicate situation because things are already tense and the Kremlin is already paranoid,” Bergmann said. “Therefore, Western leaders must be very cautious in their response.”
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2024-05-26 13:37:45
www.nytimes.com
