The verdict in the criminal trial against former President Donald J. Trump remains a mystery, at least for a few more days. What is less mysterious is what Mr. Trump will say and do after the announcement, regardless of the outcome.
If history is any guide, even if Mr. Trump is fully acquitted, he will be angry and vindictive, directing attacks against whoever he believes is responsible for prosecuting the Manhattan district attorney. He will continue to voice the attacks publicly, at rallies and on Truth Social, and privately encourage his Republican allies in the House of Representatives to subpoena his Democratic enemies.
The pattern is well established: After escaping impeachment twice and enduring a special counsel investigation led by Robert S. Mueller III into ties between his 2016 campaign and Russia, Mr. Trump immediately switched gears to revenge, complaining about the injustices that which he was forced to endure and call on his allies to investigate.
“Regardless of the outcome, the playbook is the same,” said Alyssa Farah Griffin, Mr. Trump’s former White House communications director who began working for him shortly after his first impeachment trial.
Mr. Trump’s team is still finalizing its plans for after the trial concludes, with the timing left up to the jury’s decision.
It’s unclear how much the public cares about his trial over allegations that he falsified business records to conceal hush-money payments to a porn star during the 2016 election. According to a person briefed on the data, Mr. Trump’s advisers conducted private polling of public opinion throughout the trial and found no significant decline in his support, even during some of the more painful days of testimony. Public polls also suggest a relatively stable race.
But that could change depending on the ruling. Polls suggest a conviction could turn some voters against him, but even his most outspoken opponents remain unconvinced. And any other result could give him a boost at a time when he is already leading President Biden in most polls in the states that will decide the election.
“An acquittal or a jury decision is simply worth its weight in gold for Trump. And it will resonate with a lot of people,” said Ms. Griffin, who has become a harsh critic of Mr. Trump. “He doesn’t want to be convicted for a variety of reasons, but I think he realizes there’s an opportunity to turn this into political fuel.”
Some of Mr. Trump’s former aides who spent time with him after his previous investigations say he was in no mood to celebrate after those supposed victories, but instead sought retribution.
Immediately after the release of Mr. Mueller’s report, Mr. Trump called for punishment of the people who led the investigation. His attorney general, William P. Barr, appointed a special counsel, John Durham, to investigate the intelligence and law enforcement officials behind it. But the Durham investigation was too slow for Mr. Trump; He wanted his enemies to be prosecuted immediately, according to several people who worked in the administration and were not authorized to speak publicly. That didn’t happen.
And after enduring his first impeachment in early 2020 for trying to pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Mr. Biden and his son Hunter, Mr. Trump was in such a bad mood that some of his advisers surprised who were replaced episode was over. He sat in his private dining room next to the Oval Office, glowering at the television and uttering profanities, according to a person with direct knowledge of the events.
Mr. Trump often dwells on supposed wounds longer than necessary. “In general,” Ms. Griffin said, “he is completely incapable of achieving a victory, even if it would benefit him.”
On the morning of February 6, 2020, a day after the Republican-controlled Senate voted to acquit Mr. Trump in both impeachment trials — what should have been a morning of relief and celebration — he appeared angry.
Mr. Trump was at the National Prayer Breakfast in Old Testament style, embodying what he calls his favorite message from the Bible: “An eye for an eye.” He pursed his lips and lashed out at the Democrats who impeached him. He waved the dailies above his head: “Acquitted.”
Mr. Trump conveyed the same sense of sadness and desire for revenge after his second impeachment. He studied the list of ten Republican House members who voted to impeach him and the list of seven Republican senators who voted to convict him. He attacked her publicly and brutally.
Eight of the 10 impeachment voters, including Liz Cheney of Wyoming, who was at the top of Mr. Trump’s ticket, are no longer in Congress, either having been defeated in the primaries by pro-Trump challengers or being forced into retirement .
“Two down, eight more!” Mr. Trump said in a typical statement celebrating the resignation of Adam Kinzinger, one of the House Republicans who voted to impeach him.
This time the retaliation could be more severe, especially if Mr. Trump retakes the White House next year. He has already said, without providing evidence, that he holds Mr. Biden personally responsible for each of his 88 criminal charges in four jurisdictions and has promised that if he wins back the presidency, he will “appoint a real special prosecutor to look into the matter.” takes care”. “The most corrupt president in the history of the United States of America, Joe Biden, and the entire Biden crime family.”
The verdict in that trial will come in the middle of the presidential campaign, giving a new dynamic to the aftermath, especially if Mr. Trump is acquitted, said John R. Bolton, his former national security adviser, who has been deeply critical of his former boss.
“He will show the sense of hurt that he had to endure this in the first place, because if they couldn’t pull it off, there was nothing there,” Bolton said. He predicted that Mr. Trump would tie the verdict to Mr. Biden regardless of the outcome.
Mr. Trump already has many targets in his sights. He has publicly attacked Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney who brought the charges; Judge Juan M. Merchan, the judge overseeing the case; Judge Merchan’s daughter, who worked as a consultant for the Democrats; and members of the law enforcement team for repeated violations of a judge-ordered gag order.
Allies of Mr. Trump, including Steve Bannon, his former chief strategist, have called on House Republicans to issue subpoenas to people involved in the various prosecutions of Mr. Trump. They have alleged, without evidence, that all of the charges against Mr. Trump are part of a broader criminal conspiracy directed by Biden against the former president.
“This prosecution in New York is part of President Biden’s law enforcement and election interference against President Trump on many fronts,” said Mike Davis, a Republican lawyer and vocal supporter of Mr. Trump.
“Next, the House Judiciary Committee, including the Arms Subcommittee, should vigorously issue subpoenas for documents and witnesses,” he said.
In a statement, Steven Cheung, a Trump campaign official, reiterated the theme of “armed” justice, saying: “President Trump is innocent and the American people know it.”
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2024-05-26 09:04:05
www.nytimes.com
