The candidates are the same. The circumstances are very different.
The first presidential debate of 2024 between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump on Thursday offers both men a rare chance to determine the direction of a race that has so far been defined by its stability.
Mr. Biden sought this historically early confrontation to highlight the stark difference between their competing visions for America. His team wants to dissuade voters from viewing 2024 as just a vote on Mr. Biden’s leadership — the watchwords in Bidenland are choice and contrast — and warn that a second Trump term would be more radical and vindictive than the first.
Mr. Trump was also eager for the debate. He sees Mr. Biden as cognitively weakened since their last debate encounter in October 2020. Mr. Trump is relishing the chance to challenge Mr. Biden’s record on the border and, in particular, inflation.
There is little mutual respect between them. The hostility is expected to be palpable in the audience-free CNN television studio in Atlanta, where they will debate 90 of the most consequential minutes of the campaign.
You should pay attention to this:
Can Trump take on Biden? And vice versa?
The debate is a first in modern history as both candidates were already president.
The voters know them. But many voters don’t like them. That’s why it’s essential to talk about the other man and his past as much as you talk about your own.
The Trump team expects an election that represents a referendum on Mr. Biden’s term in office — including long periods of high inflation, more frequent border crossings by migrants and instability abroad in Israel and Ukraine — will result in a victory.
For Mr. Biden, the debate over Mr. Trump means confronting him with his role in the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, his willingness to pardon those convicted in the riots — whom Mr. Trump has called “hostages” — and himself confront remark that he will not be a dictator “except on day one.”
And one more thing: Mr. Trump’s new status as a convicted felon. The Biden campaign has begun to place Mr. Trump’s legal troubles under a broader umbrella, arguing that the former president only cares about himself and is running in part to avoid prison time.
Mr. Trump doesn’t want to get caught up in a lengthy back-and-forth over his role in the Jan. 6 riots, possible pardons or his “Day 1” dictator remark. He prepared for the debate with a series of calls with allies and advisers that his team likes to call “policy sessions.” Mr Biden has undergone days of intense preparation at Camp David, surrounded by his closest advisers, with mock debate rehearsals that began on Monday.
Abortion vs. Immigration: The Debate Within the Debate
Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump represent fundamentally different approaches to the economy, taxation, abortion, the border, America’s role in the world and the democratic process itself.
The debate within the debate will be about which of these topics dominate the discussion.
Mr. Biden wants to nail Mr. Trump on abortion. Four years ago, Mr. Biden said in a debate that Roe v. Wade was “on the ballot,” which Mr. Trump repeatedly denied. “It’s not on the ballot,” Trump said at the time. Since then, Mr. Trump has embraced the Supreme Court ruling that struck down the federal right to abortion.
Now Mr. Trump says he wants to allow states to enact any abortion restrictions they want. He supports exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother.
Mr. Biden is expected to argue that Mr. Trump will ultimately support a nationwide abortion ban and has opened the door to restrictions on IVF or even birth control.
If abortion is Mr. Biden’s main issue, Mr. Trump’s team sees the border – and the crimes of migrants who cross it illegally – as a weak point for the current president.
In the most recent New York Times-Siena College poll, 84 percent of voters who said immigration was their most important issue thought Mr. Trump was better on the issue. The opposite was true on abortion: 81 percent of those who rated it as their most important issue supported Mr. Biden.
Trump throws a fight?
Mr. Trump knows that his aggression in the first debate of 2020 was so intense: “Are you going to shut up, man?” Mr. Biden sighed at one point — that it sparked a backlash. But the former New York businessman has always been a relentless debater on the debate stage, adept at the kind of personal insults and insults rarely seen before his arrival at this level of politics.
For months, Mr. Trump has made doubts about Mr. Biden’s mental state a centerpiece of his 2024 campaign. He has sought to raise those expectations in recent days. In May, Mr. Trump called Mr. Biden the “WORST debater” he had ever encountered. In June he praised him as a “worthy debater.”
Pre-debate spin is the norm. But Mr. Trump and his team have gone far beyond that, indulging in baseless claims that Mr. Biden will take performance-enhancing drugs, a pet hobby of Trump’s in the run-up to general election debates since 2016.
“Trump has gone unhinged,” said Cedric Richmond, a former White House adviser who was part of the Camp David debate preparation team. “He and the truth are not on the same planet. That makes it difficult.”
How does Biden deal with the age question?
Mr. Biden, 81, is the oldest president in American history. Mr. Trump, 78, would break that record if elected, turning 82 before the end of his term. But months of polls show that voters care most about the incumbent’s ability to hold office.
Whatever one-liners Mr. Biden unfurls to defuse questions about his age and competence will be among the most scrutinized in the debate. There is a risk of being too flippant about an issue that worries about 70 percent of voters. But he also has to be energetic enough so that his answer is not quickly forgotten. Mr. Biden’s entourage believes that the public’s perception of his fitness will be influenced simply by his 90-minute demonstration of mastery of things.
Few Americans — aside from those who saw his State of the Union address in March — have seen more than brief snippets of Mr. Biden recently. And while a strong performance won’t fully answer questions about his suitability for another term that would end at age 86, it would serve to reassure them. On the other hand, a stumbling result would raise doubts about Mr. Biden ahead of the Democratic convention.
Whatever happens, the historically early debate means it will be months before there is any chance of a repeat.
Who will cope better with the new format?
This debate will be different. For one thing, there is no live audience for the candidates to respond to. Second, CNN has stated that the microphones will be muted if the candidates are not supposed to speak. The rules say the network’s hosts, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, will use “all means at their disposal” to ensure a civilized discussion.
The interaction between Mr. Biden, Mr. Trump and the moderators is being closely watched. Mr Biden doesn’t want to get bogged down in correcting every untruth Mr Trump says. As Mr. Biden said in a 2020 debate, “I’m not here to flaunt his lies.”
Mr. Trump himself has portrayed the debate as a 3-on-1 contest, while his advisers have advocated for a hands-off approach from the moderators. “Will CNN decide that they will act as a mediator?” Chris LaCivita, a top Trump adviser, told reporters on Tuesday. “Or will CNN become a participant?”
According to CNN, Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden will stand at lecterns just six feet apart. This means they can hear each other even if one microphone is muted, adding another X-factor.
Who can create more memorable (meme-able) moments?
The debate will only last about 90 minutes. But both sides are preparing for the minutes and hours that follow, which could have just as big an impact on public opinion.
Mr. Trump has a MAGA army ready to amplify his greatest hits. Mr Biden’s campaign has also aggressively reached out to social media influencers, although with mixed results.
How important are these online influencers?
The Democratic Party just invited content creators to the convention to help spread the word, while former President Barack Obama met with 80 content creators ahead of his joint fundraiser with Mr. Biden in Los Angeles this month to urge an engagement. “What’s the point of having four million followers if you can’t do anything with it,” Obama told them.
Moments that go viral tend to happen unscripted — an eye roll or even a fly landing on the vice president’s head. But modern campaigns think hard about creating memorable clashes on favorable political terrain.
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, which has passed recommendations to the Biden team, said the goal is to “capture political debates through the prism of high-spirited moments that are likely to go viral afterward.” No matter how many successful exchanges a candidate has, Mr. Green warned, “If the ones that go viral don’t include those moments, you’re in trouble.”
Michael Gold and Ruth Igielnik contributed reporting.
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2024-06-27 04:48:22
www.nytimes.com
