When President Biden made Michigan one of the first states on the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination calendar, he increased the political influence of a populous, diverse battleground state.
That decision more than a year ago led to the most significant test of Mr. Biden’s standing within his party since his election, as a protest over his support for Israel threatens to upend what his allies had expected from a straightforward primary campaign place.
Mr. Biden remains widely expected to win Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Michigan by a significant margin. But a homegrown campaign to persuade Michigan residents to vote “without commitment” will gauge the resistance he faces among Arab Americans, young voters, progressives and other Democrats to his stance on the war in Gaza.
A high number of “non-binding” votes would represent a warning for his statewide campaign and raise alarms in Michigan, which he won in 2020 but where polls show weakness against former President Donald J. Trump. A low number, on the other hand, would give Mr. Biden and his Democratic allies new confidence that he can weather the tensions and focus on campaign priorities like the economy and abortion rights.
The lack of reliable public polling has made the outcome uncertain and helped turn the primaries into a night of sweating among Mr. Biden’s allies.
“I’ll look at Democratic turnout and it will tell me if I have anything to worry about,” Rep. Haley Stevens of Michigan said in an interview Monday. “We’ll find out how deep that is on Wednesday.”
Republicans are also holding their primaries, although far more delegates are at stake Saturday at one or more nominating conventions hosted by a state Republican Party at war with itself. Mr. Trump is the clear favorite in both contests over his last remaining primary rival, Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina.
According to Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, more than a million early and absentee ballots have already been cast in Michigan’s primary election. However, that data did not show how ballots were divided among each party’s primary.
Here’s what to look for in Michigan’s primary election.
How many Democratic votes go to “uncommitted”?
The Arab-American-led group Listen to Michigan, which began the non-binding push three weeks ago, has set a modest goal: 10,000 votes.
In some ways, the last two Democratic presidential primaries in Michigan each had about 20,000 “non-binding” votes, with strong and competitive fields.
Since Mr. Biden faces only a symbolic challenge from Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota, the “non-binding” tally is being interpreted as a vote of no confidence in Mr. Biden over his Gaza policy or other intra-party grievances.
Our Revolution, the progressive group founded by supporters of Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, is targeting 10 percent of the primary vote. (Mr. Sanders himself supports Mr. Biden and, a spokeswoman said, opposes the Uncommitted campaign.)
Mr Biden’s allies tried to slow the momentum against him in the final days of the campaign. A pro-Israel group released a series of digital ads supporting the president and warning that a non-binding vote would help Mr. Trump. Mr Biden said on Monday he hoped to bring about a ceasefire within a week, with Israel halting military operations in Gaza in return for the release of at least some of the more than 100 hostages held by Hamas.
“My national security adviser tells me we’re close, we’re close, we’re not done yet,” he told reporters in New York. “I hope we have a ceasefire by next Monday.”
Mr. Biden’s campaign has declined to commit to primary predictions beyond saying he will win, which is what Listen to Michigan leaders are also predicting. But his allies in Michigan and beyond are bracing for the possibility of a tough night, with the more pessimistic among them suggesting that “non-binding” could reach well into double digits.
Will the Biden team’s relatively small presence in Michigan play a role?
As the Biden campaign sought to increase the score in South Carolina, which the president had put at the top of the party’s nomination calendar, it dispatched a flotilla of surrogates, including Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, the House Democratic leader, to the state, to promote their support. Vice President Kamala Harris ended the campaign with an energetic rally before a few hundred supporters on the eve of the primary.
The Biden team’s presence in Michigan has diminished.
In Ms. Harris’ final appearance of the primary season in Michigan, she met with nine allies in Grand Rapids last week – a move necessitated by fears that Gaza protesters would disrupt her focus on abortion rights. Mr. Biden last visited the state on Feb. 1, speaking at a small gathering with union auto workers and visiting a restaurant. Demonstrators demonstrated outside of his events anyway.
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer appeared at a half-dozen events for Mr. Biden this month and her political action committee hosted nearly 20 more, but the most prominent campaign official from abroad to campaign for Mr. Biden in Michigan was Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Mitch Landrieu, the former New Orleans mayor and campaign co-chair. Pete Buttigieg, the transportation secretary who now lives in Michigan, also promoted Mr. Biden in the state.
The White House sent a senior team to a private meeting with Arab American officials in Dearborn this month, where a senior foreign policy adviser acknowledged “missteps” in the administration’s foreign policy and public messaging on the conflict in Gaza.
Other potential Biden surrogates were asked to travel to Michigan but declined because they did not want to deal with protesters in the Gaza Strip, according to people familiar with the negotiations. The Biden campaign declined to comment for this article.
Rep. Ro Khanna of California, usually one of Mr. Biden’s most forceful supporters, arrived in the state without the Biden campaign’s logo, although it authorized his trip. He held a “ceasefire town hall” on the University of Michigan campus and then appeared with Rep. Rashida Tlaib of Michigan — the only member of the state’s congressional delegation to endorse the “non-binding” campaign.
Will “uncommitted” voters return to Biden in November?
The movement’s leaders insist they do not want to harm Mr. Biden in the general election, but hope to convince him in time that his position on Israel will harm him politically for him to correct himself.
“There is a risk that Biden will lose Michigan in November,” said Layla Elabed, campaign manager for Listen to Michigan. “Hopefully the numbers will be meaningful enough after the primary that Joe Biden can care about listening to Michigan.”
Ms. Elabed and others at Listen to Michigan have argued that most Democrats who object to Mr. Biden’s Israel policy will support him in November — as long as he changes course on the issue. Other Michigan activists said Mr. Biden needs to go further and reduce American military aid to Israel. A group of Armenian Americans is also calling for a “non-binding” vote to protest the treatment of ethnic Armenians living in Azerbaijan.
How many Democratic primary dissidents will return to Mr. Biden in November in a likely contest with Mr. Trump remains an open question.
“Joe Biden can get the vast majority of these people to vote for him if he changes course,” said former Rep. Andy Levin of Michigan, who has supported and campaigned for the Uncommitted movement. “If he doesn’t change course, there’s nothing I can do to get people to vote for him.”
Can Nikki Haley find a little new glimmer of hope?
After focusing on the South Carolina primary for nearly a month and losing to Mr. Trump by just 20 percentage points in her home state, Ms. Haley arrived in Michigan without much momentum. Her largest external benefactor, the Koch political network, announced that it would end its support for her.
Michigan has an open primary system, meaning Democrats could vote for Ms. Haley, as in other states – but given all the attention focused on how Mr. Biden performs in his primaries, Ms. Haley may not be able to rely on that This time some kind of support.
Still, the Michigan primary could be a highlight for Ms. Haley, as most of the state’s delegates to the Republican National Convention will be awarded at a convention scheduled for Saturday. Convention delegates tend to be more loyal to Mr. Trump than the broader Republican primary electorate.
But even this is more complicated than meets the eye: A split among Republicans in Michigan has led to dueling caucuses led by the two people who each claim to be party leaders.
Ms. Haley has continued to argue at her campaign stops in Michigan that Mr. Trump will lose the general election – a message very similar to what the “non-committal” supporters are predicting about Mr. Biden if he doesn’t change course on the Israel-Gaza war .
Jazmine Ulloa contributed reporting.
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2024-02-27 14:56:27
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