President Biden and his national security team see a narrow window of opportunity to finally seal a deal that would at least temporarily and possibly permanently end the war in Gaza, even as they cave to pressure from protests on college campuses to support Israel in the fight against Hamas to let down.
The confluence of several factors has renewed the government’s hope that it can break the stalemate in the next week or two. Mr. Biden’s team wants to capitalize on Israel’s successful defense from Iranian attacks, growing public pressure in Israel to release the hostages and Saudi desire for a new diplomatic and security initiative.
The window can be short. The president’s advisers are pushing for a ceasefire agreement before Israel can begin its long-threatened attack on the southern Gaza town of Rafah, an operation with the potential for high civilian casualties that could derail short-term chances for peace. But in recent months, government officials have taken this route before, repeatedly expressing optimism only to recognize the chances of a deal collapsing.
The government is testing its proposal with a renewed push in the region. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken met with Arab leaders in Saudi Arabia, where he promoted a new “extraordinarily generous” offer from Israel that signaled it was now willing to accept the release of a few hostages in the first phase of a deal. 33 instead of 40.
Sameh Shoukry, the foreign minister of Egypt, which is expected to host a new round of talks in Cairo starting Tuesday, said he was “hopeful” about the latest ceasefire proposal and said it had “taken into account the positions of both sides.” .”
Mr. Blinken’s Saudi hosts are eager to strike a separate deal that would include a security agreement with the United States and civilian nuclear aid as well as diplomatic recognition of Israel, in what diplomats say could be a transformative moment for a region that has long harbored Jews Time has outlawed condition. However, as part of this agreement, the Saudis insist that Israel commit to a concrete plan for a possible Palestinian state within a certain period of time, something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far strictly rejected.
Looking ahead to the political calendar in Washington, the Saudis are looking to take action in the next few weeks in hopes of winning bipartisan support in the Senate ahead of November elections in which former President Donald J. Trump could retake office. With Mr. Trump in the White House, the chances of Senate Democrats voting for a deal with Saudi Arabia could disappear, officials and analysts say.
But the Saudis would be hard-pressed to continue if Israel launched a major attack on Rafah, adding momentum to ceasefire talks. Mr. Biden followed a Sunday call with Mr. Netanyahu and on Monday called Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, the Emir of Qatar, whose governments acted as intermediaries with Hamas in the talks.
“The Israelis appear to be softening their stance, and the Saudis appear to have put their offer of normalization on the table, and Hamas is speaking more positively,” said Martin S. Indyk, a two-time ambassador to Israel and a former Middle East special envoy and East peace envoy . “So things are looking better than they have in several weeks.”
The wild card remains Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader living in hiding in the Gaza Strip who has so far blocked a deal for a ceasefire and hostages. The Americans and Israelis are not in direct contact with Mr. Sinwar and rely on the Qataris and Egyptians to communicate with Hamas leaders outside Gaza, who then communicate with Mr. Sinwar, complicating their ability to analyze his intentions.
“If Sinwar is willing to make a deal, it will happen,” said Dennis B. Ross, a longtime Middle East negotiator now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “I suspect that the government believes that nothing will be possible if Israel does Rafah. The problem is, if Sinwar has hostages, they are still a card in his own hand” and he might “decide to play them.”
American officials continued to increase pressure on Hamas on Monday. “The only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire is Hamas,” Blinken said in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.
In Washington, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that “new progress has been made in the talks in recent days and the responsibility at this point actually lies with Hamas.” There is a deal on the table and they must accept it .”
As if the diplomatic Rubik’s cube wasn’t already complicated enough, a new wrinkle in recent days has threatened to complicate American efforts even further. Israeli officials fear that the International Criminal Court is preparing to issue arrest warrants for senior government officials involved in waging the Gaza war.
The White House rejected any attempt to do so. “We don’t support it,” Ms. Jean-Pierre said. “We don’t believe they have jurisdiction.”
Another deadline looms on May 8, when the administration must certify to Congress whether Israel is complying with American and international law when using weapons provided by the United States. Reports from Reuters and Politico in recent days suggest that lawyers within the U.S. government are at least skeptical that such certification could occur.
The intensification of diplomacy comes as anger has erupted at American universities over the war in Gaza and Mr. Biden is hounded during his travels by protesters who accuse him of supporting genocide. The president has expressed support for the free expression of peaceful protesters while condemning anti-Semitism against Jewish students, who have been targeted in some cases.
As Mr. Biden’s campaign strategists in Wilmington, Delaware, worry about the impact of young voters’ dissatisfaction with the political left that he needs to win re-election, his national security advisers are trying to tune out the noise to find the right combination of steps that they believe will stop the war temporarily and, they hope, even permanently.
“The president clearly feels the urgency,” said Steven A. Cook, senior fellow for Middle East and African studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
And that also applies to some of its partners abroad. Mr. Cook has just returned from a trip to Saudi Arabia, where he said he found leaders eager to finalize their deal with the United States. “The Saudis were at the forefront,” he said. “This is a matter of success or failure, this is the moment.”
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2024-04-29 22:47:35
www.nytimes.com
