People shop at the Macy’s store in Herald Square in New York City on January 19, 2024.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Consumer spending rebounded in February from a plunge in January, with some support from leap day. But even after accounting for that extra day of spending, sales still saw good growth.
The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, which is based on actual credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, rose 1.06% in February when excluding cars and gasoline. The value of out-of-home restaurants also rose by 0.95%, the core measure of the Retail Monitor.
Adjusting for the leap day effect, sales rose 0.4%, or less than half the unadjusted gain, but were still above January’s 0.2% decline. Excluding restaurants, the leap day-adjusted Retail Monitor rose 0.3%, compared with a 0.04% gain in January.
“While the future path of interest rates and inflation remains uncertain, it is clear that a strong labor market and rising real wages continue to support spending,” said Matt Shay, president of the National Retail Federation.
Looking at individual sectors, not adjusted for leap day:
- Online and other non-store sales increased a seasonally adjusted 0.8% month-over-month and 18.08% year-over-year.
- Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores increased seasonally adjusted by 2.29% month-on-month and by 13.67% year-on-year.
- Health and personal care stores increased 0.96% month-over-month and 11.18% year-over-year on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Clothing and accessories stores increased 0.51% month-over-month and 8.05% unadjusted year-over-year.
Sector data was also affected by the leap day, and the overall index could diverge more from Census Bureau retail data this month than is typically the case.
Unlike survey-based numbers collected by the Census Bureau, Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity and is not reviewed monthly or annually.
Economists expect a 0.8% increase in Thursday’s Census retail sales report, a complete reversal of January’s 0.8% decline. So both this forecast, if accurate, and the CNBC/NRF monitor for February suggest that January was not the start of the long-awaited slowdown in consumer spending.
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2024-03-12 14:00:50
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