Members of the Taiwanese military conduct routine exercises at Liaoluo Port in Kinmen, May 24, 2024. China circled Taiwan on May 23 with naval ships and military aircraft in war games aimed at punishing the self-ruled island after its new president vowed to defend democracy. (Photo by I-HWA CHENG/AFP via Getty Images)
I-hwa Cheng | Afp | Getty Images
China’s recent military exercises around Taiwan risk escalating tensions across the Taiwan Strait – but war remains unlikely, political observers say.
Beijing warned that the two-day drills, which continued on Friday, were aimed at punishing the island’s new president, Lai Ching-te, for his “hostility and provocations.”
The escalation comes just days after Lai was sworn in on Monday. In his inaugural speech, Lai urged China to end its political and military threats against the self-governing island.
China’s state news agency Xinhua said Taiwan’s new leader “took an even riskier and more radical approach than his predecessors” in his debut speech. The exercises are “legitimate, timely and absolutely necessary” as acts of “Taiwan independence” in any form “cannot be tolerated,” it said.
“This feels like a prelude to more and larger military exercises to come,” Wen-Ti Sung, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub, said in a post on X.
“This is a signal for shaping international narratives. The real ‘punishment’ against Taiwan may be yet to come because it takes time.”
Beijing considers democratically ruled Taiwan part of its territory and Chinese President Xi Jinping had previously said reunification with the mainland was “a historic inevitability.”
China’s Defense Ministry said the drills, called “Joint Sword-2024A,” would be a “strong punishment” for the “separatist forces seeking ‘independence.'”
The exercises will focus on “jointly assuming comprehensive control of the battlefield and joint precision strikes on key targets,” it said.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command also said it conducted sea strikes, land strikes, air defense and anti-submarine attacks in the airspace and waters north and south of the island of Taiwan.
In response, Taiwan was on high alert and its coast guard deployed patrol ships to monitor Chinese military movements.
“Irrational provocations”
Political observers stress that the latest escalation is a signal that Beijing’s stance toward Taiwan may be toughening under the leadership of Lai – whom China has described as a “stubborn advocate of Taiwan independence” and a dangerous separatist.
While signals before the inauguration suggested a more measured response, “Beijing appears shocked by Lai’s positive language about Taiwan’s sovereignty and identity,” Eurasia analysts said.
In his speech on Monday, Lai said Taiwan’s constitution makes it clear that the Republic of China – Taiwan’s official name – and the People’s Republic of China are “not subordinate to each other.”
He added that all political parties should “oppose annexation and protect sovereignty.”
China’s top diplomat Wang Yi criticized Lai on Tuesday, saying: “No matter what tricks they play, they cannot prevent China from ultimately achieving full reunification,” state media reported.
Taiwan’s defense ministry condemned the Chinese exercises as “irrational provocations” that undermine regional peace and stability.
“This pretext for conducting military exercises not only does not contribute to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, but also underscores its hegemonic nature,” the ministry said.
While the People’s Liberation Army exercises have not reached the level of China’s response to former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island in August 2022, they include unprecedented Coast Guard patrols around several Taiwan-controlled offshore islands, Eurasia analysts pointed out .
“Fujian Coast Guard vessels patrolled up to 2.8 and 3 nautical miles from Wuqiu and Dongyin islands, respectively, this week, entering their ‘forbidden waters’ for the first time,” they said.
US-China relations
Under Xi, China has increased diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Taiwan as the island intensifies informal ties with the United States.
Xi told US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the APEC leaders’ summit in November that Taiwan has always been the “most important and sensitive” issue in China-US relations.
U.S. policy will also influence cross-strait relations, noted Gabriel Wildau, managing director of Teneo Intelligence.
“Tensions would likely rise further if Republicans win control of both chambers of the US Congress in the November elections, regardless of the outcome of the US presidential race,” he added.
The more Lai becomes more confident in his new role as president, the more he may be “encouraged” to deviate further from the relatively cautious positioning of his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen and “follow his instinct for independence,” Wildau stressed.
Even if a war over Taiwan remains unlikely in the next decade, the frequency and intensity with which Beijing uses these familiar military tools will likely increase, observers said.
The latest exercises show that cross-strait relations have entered an “unstable phase,” Eurasia analysts said.
But Beijing is likely to “refrain from actions that would jeopardize US-China stabilization efforts on the Taiwan issue, at least until the US elections,” they added.
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2024-05-24 09:25:54
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