Follow live Super Tuesday updates as voters go to the polls in more than a dozen states.
Typically, Super Tuesday looms large in the political calendar as the moment when the presidential race moves from one-by-one contests to more than a dozen states at once. The number of delegates is immense, accounting for up to a third of each party’s total. Competition is expensive and extensive and often momentous.
Not this year.
In 2024, Super Tuesday is notably lacking a lot of election drama. Donald Trump is widely expected to win a series of lopsided victories. President Biden faces no significant primary challenges. Although neither man is expected to clinch his party’s nomination when voting results are announced tomorrow night, the primaries will put them on a good path.
But wait! For political observers, all is not lost tomorrow evening. Following the presidential election, several states hold follow-up primaries. These races lack the high profile of the presidential campaign, but they can give us clues about the types of races the country could face in November.
Here are three films worth watching:
California Senate
The California Senate primaries were expected to become a gigantic conflict over the future and ideology of the Democratic Party. It hasn’t worked out that way yet.
The unusual nature of California politics has effectively turned the contest into a race for second place. The state’s so-called jungle primary system means that the top two voters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. MP Adam Schiff is the top candidate and is likely to secure one of two winning places. What is less certain is who he will compete against.
A key part of his strategy was to pour $10 million into trying to promote a Republican opponent, Steve Garvey, a 75-year-old former baseball star. Garvey held few campaign events and did not purchase a single campaign ad. And yet, with Schiff’s help, he now appears poised to move into the general election.
Recent polls suggest Garvey could beat Rep. Katie Porter for second place. If that happens, Schiff could come close to winning a Senate seat in November, considering the chances of a Republican winning the general election in deep blue California are long. If Porter scores a surprise victory tomorrow, the race will become a choice between an establishment Democrat and a younger liberal challenger.
Governor of North Carolina
Super Tuesday will kick off one of the most important gubernatorial races in North Carolina this fall. As my colleague Eduardo Medina reported today, the race features two candidates with completely different views in one of the most competitive swing states in the country.
Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general, is a traditional Democrat who rose through the ranks of the party establishment. If he wins Tuesday’s primary, as polls suggest, he will likely face Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson in November, a right-wing culture warrior whose political rise rested on comments he made in defense of gun rights that went viral in 2018.
Given North Carolina’s swing state status, the race will inevitably be a referendum on the national parties. Republicans will link Stein to Biden and try to tie the Democratic nominee to a president with below-average approval ratings. Meanwhile, Democrats have already begun portraying Robinson as an extremist on issues like abortion rights.
Either way, the race will likely make history: Stein would be the state’s first Jewish governor and Robinson would be the first black governor.
California House race
Much of the race for control of the House of Representatives in November will come over two states, neither of which are considered presidential battlegrounds: California and New York. We’ll get our first look at the contours of some of these crucial races on Tuesday with the primaries in key California counties.
The state is a linchpin of Democratic plans to regain control of the House of Representatives. Of the eight Republican-held seats that are considered bad decisions, three are in California. That’s more than any other state, according to the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.
But the primaries in the jungle are complicating the Democrats’ plans for supremacy in the Golden State. As my colleague Jonathan Weisman reported over the weekend, a bitter battle between two Democratic candidates in a Republican-controlled Central Valley district is splitting the party’s vote. The seat is held by Republican David Valadao. Much of the state’s Democratic establishment has supported former Rep. Rudy Salas. But he is being challenged by another member of his party, State Senator Melissa Hurtado.
Some Democrats worry that the contest between the two Democratic candidates could push Valadao and another Republican challenger, Chris Mathys, into the top two spots. Such an outcome would create a Republican-to-Republican race in November and deprive Democrats of a key board seat next fall.
Trump wins a Supreme Court challenge to his eligibility to vote
The Supreme Court ruled Monday that states cannot bar former President Donald Trump from running for another term, rejecting a challenge to his eligibility that threatened to upend the presidential race by barring him nationwide excluded from the ballot papers.
Although the judges gave different reasons, the decision was unanimous. All statements focused on legal issues, and none took a position on whether Trump had participated in an insurrection.
All justices agreed that individual states cannot disqualify candidates for the presidency based on a constitutional provision, Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, that prohibits insurrectionists from holding office. Four judges would have left it at that.
But a majority of five justices went on to say in an unsigned opinion that Congress must act to give force to Section 3.
“The Constitution makes Congress, not the states, responsible for enforcing Section 3 against federal officials and candidates,” the majority wrote, adding that detailed federal law was needed to determine who was disqualified under that provision.
In a joint concurring opinion, the court’s three liberal members — Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson — expressed frustration with what they said was the majority’s unnecessary overreach. They said it was intended to protect the court and Trump “from future controversy.”
–Adam Liptak
Read the full article here.
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2024-03-05 11:28:33
www.nytimes.com
