When the economy slows, no one has told the job market.
Employers added 275,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported Friday, another month that exceeded expectations.
It was the third straight month of gains above 200,000 and the 38th straight month of growth – new evidence that America’s jobs engine still has plenty of steam as it recovers from pandemic-related shutdowns.
“We were expecting a slowdown in the labor market and a more significant easing of conditions, but we’re just not seeing that,” said Rubeela Farooqi, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.
The previous two months of December and January were revised downwards by a total of 167,000 jobs, reflecting higher statistical volatility in the winter months. However, this does not affect the picture of continued robust growth.
At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 3.9 percent from 3.7 percent in January, according to a household survey.
The unemployment rate was caused by people who lost or quit their jobs and by people who entered the labor market in search of work. The labor force participation rate of people in their prime working years – ages 25 to 54 – rose again to 83.5 percent, reaching last year’s highest level since the early 2000s.
The average hourly wage rose by 4.3 percent over the course of the year.
As recently as last fall, economists were forecasting much more modest job growth, with new hiring concentrated in a few industries. But while some industries hit by the pandemic have lost jobs, the expected downturns in sectors such as construction have failed to materialize. Rising wages, attractive benefits and more flexible work schedules have forced millions of workers out of the workforce, and increasing immigration is increasing the labor supply.
Healthcare and government continued to drive wage gains, while construction continued its steady rise. The retail, catering, transportation and warehousing sectors, which had been flat to negative in recent months, recovered. None of the major industries lost significant numbers of jobs, although credit intermediation continued to decline; This sector, which primarily includes commercial banking, has lost about 123,000 jobs since the start of 2021.
That doesn’t mean the employment landscape looks rosy for everyone. Employee trust, as measured by business review website Glassdoor, has fallen steadily as layoffs at technology and media companies have made headlines. This is particularly true for white-collar jobs such as human resources and consulting, while jobs that require in-person work – such as healthcare, construction and manufacturing – are more optimistic.
“It’s a two-track labor market,” said Aaron Terrazas, chief economist at Glassdoor. “For professionals in high-risk industries, it is difficult for anyone who has been laid off to find a new job, whereas for frontline workers or service workers, it is still competitive.”
The last few months have been littered with strong economic data, prompting analysts surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics to raise their gross domestic product forecasts and lower their expectations for unemployment trends. This came even as inflation eased, prompting the Federal Reserve to announce its plans to cut interest rates sometime this year, further raising growth expectations.
Mervin Jebaraj, director of the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Arkansas, helped tabulate the survey responses. He said sentiment had been boosted in part by easing concerns about government shutdowns and draconian budget cuts following several close calls since the fall. And he sees no obvious reason for the recovery to end any time soon.
“Once it starts, it continues,” Mr. Jebaraj said. “There was this external stimulus with all the trillions of dollars in government spending. Now it somehow supports itself, even if the money is gone.”
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2024-03-08 15:06:25
www.nytimes.com
