When the first New York Times/Siena College poll of the Republican primary was released in July, a quarter of Republican voters said they were unwilling to support Donald J. Trump.
These “non-Trump” voters were not like other Republicans. They were relatively wealthy, moderate and well educated. They supported immigration reform and aid to Ukraine. Above all, they had a negative opinion of Mr. Trump. A majority of these primary voters would not even support him in a general election against President Biden.
In the end, non-Trump voters found a candidate in Nikki Haley, who dropped out of her campaign on Wednesday. On Super Tuesday, she won 22 percent of the vote – just shy of the 25 percent who said in July they were not open to Mr. Trump.
Ms. Haley’s opportunity became apparent long before she made gains in the polls. As Ron DeSantis moved to the right, he became unpleasant to the relatively moderate voters who were the core of any anti-Trump coalition. Ms. Haley’s strong defense of America’s role in the world and her relatively moderate stance on abortion were a breath of fresh air for these voters, and she quickly became the choice of the party’s old neoconservative establishment wing.
That made her the only vigorous opponent of Mr. Trump. At the same time, she ensured that she would be nothing more than a faction candidate — someone who appealed only to Mr. Trump’s opposition, a mere quarter of the Republican electorate.
Ms. Haley’s limited appeal was evident in every primary. The exit polls consistently showed her losing badly among self-identified Republican voters, a group that is quite important in a Republican primary.
She ultimately won just over 30 counties and DC, many of which fit the bill as a caricature of the anti-Trump elite. Most Haley Counties were either ski and beach resorts, college towns or inside the Beltway — places that bear little resemblance to the rest of the country, let alone the Republican Party. She also shined in Vermont — the most Democratic state in the country and one where rules allowed Democrats to vote in the Republican primary.
When only Republicans were allowed to vote, Ms. Haley was devastated. Even Humboldt County, California — comparable to a grassy stretch of Vermont on the West Coast — handed Mr. Trump a 79-17 victory without the registered Democrats and independents bolstering their strength elsewhere. The only exception was in and around Salt Lake City, where Mr. Trump still faces significant opposition from Mormons in his own party.
What will Haley’s fans do in November?
With Ms. Haley out of the race, these non-Trump Republicans may be left scratching their heads over who to support in the general election. This is not a new problem for Mr. Trump, as these moderate, wealthy voters have always been skeptical of him. He lost many of them years ago, if he ever won them at all.
In the latest Times/Siena poll, Ms. Haley’s supporters said they backed Mr. Biden over Mr. Trump in the 2020 election, 48 percent to 32 percent. Surprisingly, Mr. Trump perhaps fared slightly better when it came to a rematch in 2024, with the former president winning 44 percent of those voters while Mr. Biden won 40 percent, trying to appeal to Ms. Haley’s voters after her withdrawal on Wednesday .
At 3 percent of registered voters, Haley voters supporting Mr. Trump in the general election represent only a fraction of the electorate. Many may be loyal Republicans who never loved Mr. Trump but voted for him last time and this probably will do again. Those who can be persuaded to turn their backs on him could be a crucial factor in a successful Biden re-election campaign.
After all, they likely contributed to his narrow victory in 2020.
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2024-03-07 12:56:50
www.nytimes.com
