It was so close. American officials feared that if just one missile or drone got through, the region could burst into flames and kill many Israelis.
When Israeli and U.S. forces, with the help of Arab allies, managed a near-perfect defense against airstrikes from Iran last weekend, it was not only an extraordinary military and diplomatic achievement, but also a major victory for President Biden’s efforts to prevent escalation to avert war in the Middle East.
Mr. Biden and his team were hoping that the weekend’s developments could give all three major players enough to claim victory and get away. Iran may demand vindication for its aggressive actions in response to the Israeli attack that killed some of its top military officers. Israel has shown the world that its military is too formidable to challenge and that Iran is powerless against it. And the United States prevented the region from breaking out for another day.
However, it may not work that way. Instead of claiming victory, Israeli officials said Monday they would respond — without saying when or how exactly — and Mr. Biden’s advisers braced themselves to see what that might mean.
A less visible cyberattack or a targeted but limited military action could fulfill Israel’s desire to restore deterrence without provoking Iran to counterattack again. A broader and more open attack on Iranian soil, however, could prompt Tehran to counterattack, and the conflict could suddenly degenerate into a prolonged and increasingly dangerous war.
“This weekend we saw Biden at his best,” said Laura Blumenfeld, a Middle East analyst at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies and a former State Department policy adviser. “The U.S.-led flight display with European and Arab regional partners looked like an action movie trailer for a new air defense alliance in the Middle East.”
But the reality, she added, is that Israeli forces will inevitably respond. “Turning the other cheek is not in the IDF’s plan,” she said. “A simple ‘not’ won’t work. Israel’s response is not a matter of if, but of when and how. There’s no getting around Middle Eastern mathematics – a grave, across from a grave.”
Some hawkish analysts said Mr. Biden had it all wrong. His attempt to avoid escalation could instead trigger escalation, they argued, because Iran and other enemies have been emboldened by increasingly public disagreements between Washington and Jerusalem over Israel’s conduct of the war against Hamas in Gaza.
“This perception of separation may have been a factor in Iran taking the unprecedented step of attacking Israel directly,” said Ray Takeyh, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.
It is not enough to shoot down Iranian missiles, he added.
“Stopping the attacks after they have started is not the same as stopping them from taking place,” he said. “If Biden’s team tries to create space between itself and Israel again, it will lead to further conflict.”
The successful defense of Israel was the result of 10 days of intensive diplomacy and military coordination by the Biden administration, as well as years of security relationships built by multiple governments across the region. After it became clear that Iran was planning an attack on Israel for the first time in decades of shadow war, American officials rushed to activate for the first time regional air defense plans that had been in the works for years.
American military officials worked closely with Israeli counterparts to develop a plan to shoot down incoming missiles and drones, coordinated with British and French forces in the region, and arranged with Arab allies to provide intelligence and tracking data and permission to use their airspace .
Jordan, which has been highly critical of Israel’s war in Gaza, nevertheless shot down Iranian drones flying over its territory toward Israel. An American Patriot battery stationed in Iraq shot down an Iranian ballistic missile that crossed Iraqi airspace.
In some ways, broader cooperation against Iran is the result of changing politics in the region, as evidenced by the Abraham Accords under President Donald J. Trump, which saw Arab states such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain establish normal diplomatic relations with them Israel for the first time. The Biden administration has tried to include Saudi Arabia in the deals, and although no agreement has been reached, the sheikhs in Riyadh have been willing to build ties with Israel, in part out of shared hostility toward Iran.
Intercepting almost every one of Israel’s more than 300 missiles and drones without causing any loss of life or major physical damage felt like a vindication for those who have worked to establish a network of security arrangements in the region.
John F. Kirby, a White House national security spokesman, called it a “spectacular” success. “That’s the result here,” he said at a briefing on Monday. “A stronger Israel, a weaker Iran, a more united alliance and stronger partners.” That was not Iran’s intention when it launched that attack Saturday night, not even close. Again they failed. You have completely failed.”
Mr. Kirby disputed speculation that Iran had no real intention to cause harm since it had telegraphed its impending attack for more than a week, and he denied reports that Tehran had even relayed messages through intermediaries detailing the timing and targets. He scoffed at the suggestion that more than 300 missiles and drones amounted to just a face-saving exercise.
“Perhaps they want to give the impression that this was some kind of small pinprick attack that was never intended to succeed,” he said. “You can’t throw as much metal in the air as they did in the time they did it and realistically convince anyone that you weren’t trying to cause losses and that you weren’t trying “To cause harm.” They definitely were.”
Mr. Biden himself has said little publicly about the strike. “Together with our partners, we repelled this attack,” he said Monday in his first public appearance since the attack, a meeting at the White House with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. “The United States is committed to Israel’s security.”
Mr. Sudani, whose country maintains a fragile balance between the United States and Iran, said he supported efforts to stop “the expansion of the conflict area, particularly the recent development.”
But he also used the opportunity to urge Mr. Biden that he supports Israel’s war in Gaza. “We are indeed very interested in ending this war, which has claimed the lives of thousands of civilians – women and children,” Sudani said.
The flare-up with Iran has diverted attention from the Gaza war just as Mr. Biden began increasing pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do more to ease civilian suffering.
Shibley Telhami, a Middle East scholar at the University of Maryland, said Mr. Netanyahu had an interest in prolonging the dispute with Tehran “both as a distraction from the horrors in Gaza and as a way to shift the issue to an issue.” which he …” will be more likely to be met with sympathy in the USA and the West.”
Mr. Telhami said the weekend’s success did little to “undo the damage of Biden’s strategic failure” in containing the crisis in Gaza. “It should not divert our attention from this larger strategic failure, the costs of which have been immense and are still unfolding,” he said.
Still, Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said averting a major regional war would be no small feat, at least for now.
“Biden deserves great credit,” he said. At the same time, he added, it could fade quickly. “We are still on the edge because the circumstances are exceptional and the crisis could escalate any day.”
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2024-04-16 04:01:11
www.nytimes.com
