Young people are seen on the Emory University campus in Atlanta, Georgia on October 14, 2022.
Elijah Nouvelage | AFP | Getty Images
The youngest generation of American workers is willing to move away from states that enact abortion bans and reject job offers in states that already have abortion bans, according to a new CNBC/Generation Lab poll.
The “Youth & Money in the USA” survey of 1,033 people ages 18 to 34 found that nearly two-thirds of respondents, 62%, would “probably not” or “definitely not” live in a state that prohibits abortion prohibits.
And 45% of respondents said if they were offered a job in a state where abortion is illegal, they would either “definitely” or “probably decline” the offer. Another 35% said they would “probably” take the job. And only 20% of respondents said they would definitely take the job.
“These abortion numbers have enormous implications for nearly every major company in America,” said Cyrus Beschloss, CEO of The Generation Lab. “Companies need to be aware that if they are based in one of these states, they will discourage or at least discourage a large portion of the young talent they want to hire.”
The Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling striking down Roe v. Wade’s reversal triggered a cascade of legal challenges and legislative efforts at the state level. In the past two years, more than 20 states have either banned or restricted access to the procedure.
But findings like these suggest that state abortion bans could have a profound impact on how and where the next generation of American workers will live. And by extension, by the companies that hire them.
The CNBC/Generation Lab poll was conducted between April 26 and May 2 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Sour for the economy
The survey also found that respondents had a negative view of an economy that many would consider robust.
Despite historically low unemployment rates, only 6% of respondents think the current job market is “great.” A further 38% said it was “satisfactory”, while 44% thought “quite bad” was most accurate and 11% chose “extremely bad”.
The latest jobs report released by the U.S. government last Friday showed that job growth slowed more in April than economists had expected. But the overall unemployment rate has remained below 4% for the twenty-seventh consecutive month, suggesting that the overall labor market is still strong. The same report showed annual wage growth of 3.9% for the 12 months ended April, falling below 4% for the first time since June 2021.
Investing, inflation and housing
The CNBC/Generation Lab poll also found that Americans ages 18 to 34 feel trapped in the grip of high inflation. After the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at its last meeting, Chairman Jerome Powell said: “Inflation is still too high.”
Still, the path to defeating it remains “uncertain,” Powell said at a news conference in Washington.
The survey found that 54% of respondents believe inflation affects them the most when it comes to “food costs.” Rent inflation came in second, with 22% saying higher prices were felt most there, followed by discretionary spending, healthcare costs and utility bills.
High prices also posed a major problem when it came to housing: 68% of those surveyed said that living space was available but “not affordable”. Another 21% said housing was “too hard to find.”
Mortgage rates remain high, in the 7.5% range. These higher interest rates make it difficult for current homeowners to get a higher price, and the resulting lack of sales leaves many potential first-time buyers out in the cold.
“Many young people are trying to buy a home, but there are big challenges right now,” said Delano Saporu, CEO of New Street Advisors Group, a wealth management firm that focuses on younger investors. Saporu described his clients mostly as middle-income people with a stable job and a fixed salary.
“Prices are putting additional pressure on customers’ budgets and limiting their purchasing potential now,” he said. “Many are waiting and hoping that future Fed rate cuts will lower mortgage rates.”
Both Saporu and the survey found that enthusiasm for investing has waned after the market surge last year. When CNBC/Generation Lab pollsters asked how they invest their money, 42% of respondents said they are “not currently investing or saving.” Another 18% said they keep all their money in cash.
“The excitement about buying shares has subsided,” Saporu said. “People are less optimistic about investing now that the market is no longer rising as quickly or as strongly.”
Only 17% of young people in the survey said they are currently investing in stocks.
“In recent years, customers may have heard about a random crypto coin or stock and wanted to get involved, now I see a lot less of it,” Saporu said.
TikTok and four-day weeks
Two central social issues are important arguments for a large majority of respondents to this survey. The first is TikTok. President Joe Biden recently signed a bill overwhelmingly passed by Congress that could force the Chinese owner of the popular app to sell the company or face a U.S. ban.
When the government was presented with two options on what to do with TikTok, a large majority – 70% – of survey respondents said it should “allow TikTok to continue operating as usual.” The other 30% said they would prefer a US ban on TikTok.
A second social issue is the growing debate about a four-day week. In a recent exclusive interview on CNBC, Steve Cohen, owner of the New York Mets and head of hedge fund Point 72, said he thinks a four-day week is a realistic possibility.
Among young people surveyed, a whopping 81% said they believe it would make their workplace more productive, while just 19% said productivity would suffer.
Biden versus Trump versus Kennedy
The upcoming presidential election in November appears to be changing some traditional youth voting patterns, at least for now.
If the election were held today, the CNBC and Generation Lab poll found that younger voters are almost evenly split between Biden and former President Donald Trump, with just 1 percentage point separating the two – 36% to 35% – in favor of Biden.
Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at the Waukesha Expo Center in Waukesha, Wisconsin, U.S., on Wednesday, May 1, 2024.
Daniel Steinle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
But in a three-candidate race, a whopping 29% of respondents said they would vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Still, at this point in the presidential campaign, it is unclear who is most threatened by Kennedy’s candidacy: Biden or Trump. Recent polls suggest Kennedy, a vaccine skeptic from a Democratic dynasty, may draw more support from Trump than Biden.
Additionally, 40% of respondents believe Trump would manage the economy more effectively, compared to 34% for Biden and 25% for Kennedy.
Generation Lab’s Beschloss called those numbers “shocking” for Democrats.
But this year, the downward resistance of inflation and economic pessimism could be overwhelmed by a massive wave of reproductive rights voters who tend to lean heavily Democratic at the ballot box.
Several states are also expected to have initiatives on the November ballot that would enshrine abortion rights in their constitutions. Battleground Arizona and Republican-friendly Florida are two places where these initiatives could motivate Democratic voters.
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2024-05-07 04:34:25
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