When President Biden hosts Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida this week for a visit to Washington highlighted by the pomp of a state dinner, the whole ceremony will have an inescapable subtext: Both leaders are fighting to keep their jobs.
With Mr. Biden facing a tough re-election battle with his predecessor and Mr. Kishida’s approval ratings falling to record lows amid a political scandal, leaders are expected to discuss ways to cement their countries’ alliance so that it can continue to do so stays strong when they are no longer there to maintain it.
The aim is to “create a situation in which no one can break their ties,” said Narushige Michishita, a professor of international relations at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo.
The risk of drastic changes appears to be much higher on the American side. Japanese officials, lawmakers and media now talk about “moshi Tora” — “if Trump” — or even “hobo Tora,” which roughly translates to “probably Trump,” using an abbreviation of the name of the former president and current Republican candidate.
Given Donald J. Trump’s unpredictable behavior and transactional view of international alliances, Japanese officials are preparing for possible fluctuations in American foreign policy.
On the Japanese side, even if Mr. Kishida does not survive a leadership election in his own party this fall, he will control the government at least until the next general election and probably beyond – meaning there will be no major changes in Tokyo’s political commitments becomes unlikely.
At this week’s summit, where Mr. Kishida will also address a joint session of Congress, leaders are expected to discuss closer military cooperation between U.S. forces stationed in Japan and their Japanese counterparts; collaborations on artificial intelligence, space technology and semiconductors; and the potential for Japan to produce and export more weapons to the United States.
Military cooperation in particular “smacks of future security,” said Tobias Harris, founder and head of Japan Foresight, a political risk consultancy in Washington.
During the Trump presidency, relations between the two countries experienced some turbulence as Shinzo Abe, then Prime Minister of Japan, went to great lengths to win Mr. Trump’s favor.
Mr Biden has worked with two Japanese leaders – Yoshihide Suga, the successor to Mr Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, and Mr Kishida – to restore and expand the alliance while building stronger ties with other partners in Asia to counter a rising China Might.
Last summer, Mr. Biden hosted Mr. Kishida and his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol in the president’s first meeting with foreign leaders at Camp David. This week, Mr. Biden and Mr. Kishida will meet with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as part of the first trilateral meeting of the leaders of these three countries.
In an interview with foreign media on Friday, Mr Kishida said high-level talks between multiple partners were crucial given the “very complex and challenging security environment”.
“Japan believes that for peace and stability in the region, it is important to cooperate with the Philippines and other like-minded countries while maintaining the Japan-U.S. alliance as a cornerstone,” Mr. Kishida said.
China, which has militarized islands in the South China Sea, repeatedly clashed with Philippine boats and pursued a strategy to suppress Taiwan, has shied away from a major confrontation that could attract the United States and, by extension, Japan.
Mr Biden hopes to consolidate a binding network of Pacific countries to deter Chinese aggression at a time when the United States is already embroiled in wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
“The U.S.’s resources and diplomatic capital are clearly running low,” said Mireya Solís, author of “Japan’s Quiet Leadership: Reshaping the Indo-Pacific.” “There is a desire to ensure that the alliance fulfills its purpose” if a conflict arises in Asia.
Japan, for its part, has made bold changes in defense policy after years of nominal pacifism, doubling the amount earmarked for military spending and purchasing Tomahawk missiles from the United States.
Late last year, Japan changed its postwar policy restricting arms exports and agreed to sell Japanese-made, American-designed Patriot missiles to the U.S. government.
This week in Washington, Mr. Biden and Mr. Kishida are expected to discuss forming a joint defense council to consider further exports, including more Japanese-made Patriots, cruise missiles and training aircraft used by fighter pilots, according to a senior American government official. who asked to remain anonymous so he could discuss details of the meeting. Japan could also work with the United States to help repair American Navy ships so that they do not have to leave the region for maintenance.
Beyond defense, an economic component of Mr. Kishida’s visit — an expected trip to a Toyota electric vehicle battery plant in North Carolina — could also serve to provide a public reminder of Japan’s investments in the United States.
Such memories may be aimed particularly at Mr. Trump: In 2019, during a G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, Mr. Abe presented the president with a one-page, colorful map charting American investments from companies based in Japan, the largest foreign direct investor in the United States.
Without explicitly mentioning it, Japan could also try to pressure the Biden administration to allow Nippon Steel, a Japanese conglomerate, to take over US Steel, the struggling Pittsburgh-based manufacturer.
“The contrast between a government expressing national security concerns about a Japanese steel company buying an American steel company, while at the same time trying to improve military-industrial cooperation — the message is a little messy,” said Mr. Harris, the Japan analyst .
If the agreement fails, it could complicate business relations between the two countries, said Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute and a former U.S. trade representative in Asia.
“The question is whether this will have a chilling effect on other Japanese investors or, frankly, on investors from other allies and partners in the future,” Ms. Cutler said.
Rahm Emanuel, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, said the alliance between the two countries is “much deeper and much stronger and has a much stronger strategic focus than a single trade agreement.”
With Congress deadlocked over expanding American military aid to Ukraine, Mr. Kishida’s aides declined to say whether the prime minister would invoke Japan’s support for Ukraine in his speech to American lawmakers this week.
But in the interview on Friday, Mr. Kishida said he wanted to “join President Biden in expressing and recognizing the importance of continued efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine through the unity of the G7 and other like-minded countries.”
As for the ceremonial parts of the visit, it is not yet known whether the prime minister will follow his South Korean counterpart and sing an iconic American song at the state dinner on Wednesday.
Kiuko Notoya contributed reporting.
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2024-04-07 04:01:26
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