Let’s just say it: Joe Biden is expected to win this election. He is an incumbent president running for re-election with a reasonably healthy economy against an unpopular opponent accused of multiple federal crimes.
And yet President Biden is not winning, at least not now. Polls show him trailing by well over 270 electoral votes in states, and this morning he trails Donald J. Trump by five percentage points, 48 percent to 43 percent, in our latest New York Times/Siena College national poll of registered voters.
That’s the largest lead Mr. Trump has ever had in a national Times/Siena poll. In fact, it is the largest lead Mr. Trump has had in a Times/Siena or Times/CBS poll since he first ran for president in 2015.
Why is President Biden losing? There are many possible reasons, including his age, the war in Gaza, the border and ongoing concerns about inflation. But ultimately it comes down to something very simple: Mr. Biden is very unpopular. He is so unpopular that he is now even less popular than Mr. Trump, who is still just as unpopular as he was four years ago.
President Biden’s unpopularity has upended the expected dynamics of this election. It turned a seemingly predictable rematch into a race that bears no resemblance to the 2020 election, when Mr. Biden was a broadly attractive candidate acceptable to the ideologically diverse group of voters who disapproved of Mr. Trump.
Instead, many voters appear to be grappling with two candidates they don’t like. That’s exactly what Democrats wanted to avoid when they nominated Mr. Biden in 2020. The Democrats largely avoided this in the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections, when they mostly nominated acceptable candidates or pitted incumbents against right-wing opponents. And that is exactly what led to the election of Mr. Trump in 2016.
Overall, 19 percent of registered voters in the Times/Siena poll have an unfavorable view of both candidates – a group sometimes called “double-haters.” These voters say they supported Mr. Biden by a three-to-one margin compared to those who voted in 2020, but now he has the support of less than half. Every vote counts, but these voters will undoubtedly play a crucial role in deciding the election in November.
The double haters could ultimately come back to Mr. Biden’s side. November is still eight months away, and it’s not like these voters like Mr. Trump. If they return to Mr. Biden, their return may have seemed inevitable in retrospect.
But from today’s perspective we cannot know what will happen. What we do know is that the election is much more difficult for these voters than it was four years ago when they said they liked Mr. Biden. They don’t do that today. It sets the stage for a volatile race and could be just enough to reverse her preference for president as well.
You can read the full article on the survey here.
Some other notable points:
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In our last poll in December, Mr. Biden led by two points among likely voters, although he trailed by two points among the broader group of registered voters. But in this poll, Mr. Trump is ahead by four points among likely voters. That’s still better for Mr. Biden than his five-point deficit among registered voters and continues a pattern of unusual Biden strength among most likely voters, but the difference is no longer enough to give Mr. Biden the lead.
Mr. Biden’s strength remains relatively concentrated among core voters, as he holds a 46-45 lead among those who voted in a midterm or primary. He is just two points behind those who are “almost certain to vote.” But in a general election, many other voters will turn out, and at least in this particular poll, they are enough to give Mr. Trump a modest lead.
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The poll showed Mr Trump leading Nikki Haley 77-20 in the Republican primary. That’s pretty good for Mr. Trump, of course, but it’s actually Ms. Haley’s best result in a month. And according to our poll, there’s a simple reason for their strength: Biden voters, who now make up 15 percent of those who say they’re likely to vote in the Republican primary. In fact, a near majority of Ms. Haley’s supporters (48 to 31) say they voted for Mr. Biden and not Mr. Trump in the last election.
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Mr Biden’s support among non-white voters continues to decline. He had only a 49-39 lead in the group, although non-white respondents who voted in the 2020 election said they supported Mr. Biden by 69-21.
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Despite the positive economic news in recent months, 51 percent of voters still said the economy was “bad.” In a strange way, that may be good news for Mr. Biden: Perhaps his standing will improve as voters begin to gain confidence that the economy has turned the corner.
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Even at this late date, Democrats are still divided over whether Mr. Biden should be the nominee: 46 percent say he should be and 45 percent say he shouldn’t be. We have not asked whether Mr. Biden should drop out of the race. We’ve thought about it – in fact, we’ve discussed it for days – but many respondents may not realize the complications that come with a controversial convention.
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2024-03-02 10:04:00
www.nytimes.com
