No one envisions a reliably Democratic Illinois as a swing state.
But three heated House primaries next week in the country of Lincoln highlight the major vulnerabilities of both major political parties heading into the general election: age, extremism and immigration. In today’s newsletter, I’ll tell you about some fascinating primaries that will shed light on some broader trends in US politics.
Let’s start with Illinois’ 12th Congressional District in the southern part of the state. Mike Bost, a Republican and Marine Corps veteran, was first elected to the House of Representatives in 2014. Democrats tried to label him “Meltdown Mike,” highlighting his temper tantrums in the state legislature and warning, “He would make Washington worse.”
Well, those were simpler times. A decade later, Bost is considered an established Republican. He chairs the House Veterans Affairs Committee and sits on the Agriculture and Transportation committees, from which he can direct money and projects to the largely rural district that spans the lower third of the state.
His primary opponent, Darren Bailey, proves that there may be no limits to Republican drift to the right in the era of Donald J. Trump. Bailey, as you may recall, was the ardent Trump supporter that Democratic Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker spent heavily to promote in the 2022 Republican primary for governor because he believed he would , that he would be easy to beat – which he was. Pritzker won by almost 13 percentage points.
Bailey calls Bost “Amnesty Mike,” an inadequate champion of Trump’s “America First” agenda. But Bost has Trump’s support. And to make matters even more interesting, Bailey was joined by Matt Gaetz, a prominent Trump ally and troublemaker who has had heated arguments with Bost. It’s all enough to cause a stir.
Don’t say “dude”
The Democrats have their own issues, which are reflected in the campaigns in their stronghold of the Chicago area. Let’s start with age: Danny Davis has represented a swath of Chicago that stretches from Lake Michigan to the western suburbs for nearly 28 years, and at 82, he’s determined to stay in Washington.
Chicago Treasurer Melissa Conyears-Ervin and a young community organizer, Kina Collins, would like to send him into well-deserved retirement on Tuesday.
But for the Democratic establishment, “age” is a word that won’t be spoken out loud, not with President Biden in the White House. Davis is a year older than the president, and the Democratic elite, including Pritzker, have once again rallied around him. The governor cited Davis’ “unwavering commitment to serving the people of Illinois with integrity, compassion and dedication.”
In an interview with the Chicago Tribune, even Conyears-Ervin took pains not to question Davis’ age. “It’s the energy, it’s the vision, it’s the relevance,” she said.
Immigration departments
Just up the road, in Illinois’ Fourth Congressional District, two Mexican-American Democrats, Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García and City Councilman Raymond Lopez of Chicago, are facing off in a primary focused on immigration and the influx of migrants — many of them bussed or flown to Chicago by Republican governors.
No issue has dominated Chicago politics in the last year more than the influx of migrants that has overwhelmed shelters in Chicago and its suburbs.
Lopez pushed for the removal of Chicago’s sanctuary city status and significantly tighter border security, positions that would once have been unthinkable in his progressive city. García has stuck to the more traditional Democratic position, calling for more work permits for migrants, decriminalization of undocumented immigrants and a path to citizenship for those brought to the country as children.
The divide in the Mexican-American community parallels the divide among Hispanic voters nationally, a divide that Republicans hope to exploit, as my colleagues Jennifer Medina and Ruth Igielnik reported yesterday.
Ultimately, the power of incumbents and money means that Bost, Davis and García will all likely survive, although there is no certainty. And whoever wins will almost certainly not lose control of the House, as these are districts well out of reach for the opposition party.
But similar issues driving their primary campaigns will be playing out in swing House districts and swing states across the country. Republicans from Trump onwards will play up immigration, border security and their idea that Biden is simply too old for another term. The Democrats, on the other hand, will portray the Republican Party as a party that is too extreme and authoritarian to allow them to take the reins of government.
In that sense, the Illinois primary is a test run. Tune in on Tuesday to find out the results.
The candidate who almost emptied her bank account
These days, political antennae are extremely sensitive to oddities in the House campaign, particularly inappropriate resumes and campaign finance disclosures that fall outside the norm. There was a stir earlier this year when a political unknown, Krystle Kaul, took the fundraising lead in the wide-open Democratic primary, succeeding Rep. Jennifer Wexton in the Virginia suburbs and exurbs of Washington, DC
There are 13 candidates in the Democratic race for the seat, including former Virginia House Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn, a state senator, Jennifer Boysko, and an Army veteran turned Virginia representative, Dan Helmer. In early January, after the 2023 fundraising deadlines had passed, Helmer thought he had won last year’s prize when he announced he had raised more than $600,000.
Then, two days later, Kaul, a defense and communications contractor who ran as a “Democrat for National Security,” prevailed against him with $604,000, of which $447,800 came from her own pocket in the form of a loan for her election campaign came. Her personal financial disclosures showed she earned about $302,000 last year – wealthy but not rich by political standards. Her total net worth is between $490,000 and $1 million, according to her financial disclosure, which shows a range of values for a candidate’s wealth.
Kaul speaks proudly about her Indian heritage, particularly the Kashmiri side of her family, and she has received financial support from South Asians, a significant voting bloc in Virginia’s 10th District. But she’s not the only Indian American in the race. Suhas Subramanyam, a state senator with far greater political clout, is also part of the Democratic pack. But his fundraising totals — $271,902 as of the end of 2023 — fell far short of Kaul’s.
In an interview, Kaul bristled at questions about her fundraising numbers but acknowledged that her loan to her campaign was unusually large. It was, she said, a big bet.
“To be clear: I’m not a millionaire, so you’re right when you put this money in, it’s a big sum. It’s most of what I have,” she said, saying it all comes from her own bank account. (A loan from an undisclosed donor would violate campaign finance law.) “But that’s because I believe strongly in wanting to create a safer America.”
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2024-03-15 22:00:04
www.nytimes.com
