For all their excitement, no one in Donald J. Trump’s inner political circle actually believes a criminal conviction will help him with the independent voters and suburban women who lost him the presidency in 2020.
But since Mr. Trump was first impeached, he and his team have made sure the nomination is a critical imperative. And as he looks set to become the first former U.S. president to stand trial, some of these advisers — who long ago recognized that his freedom was tied to the outcome of the 2024 election — see a silver lining.
On Thursday, a New York judge set a trial to begin on March 25. The trial is set to begin with the indictment of Manhattan District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg, who accuses Mr. Trump of falsifying business records to cover up refunds for a 2016 hush-money payment to a porn star who said she previously had an affair with him had.
Legal observers have noted that compared to the charges Trump faces for holding on to sensitive national security documents and obstructing efforts to recover them, or the charges that accuse him of conspiring to defrauding the United States by trying to overturn an election that was silent. The money case seems far less serious.
And these hush money charges represent a low-level crime and carry comparatively less potential prison time.
“There is absolutely no crime involved in this lawless case,” said Steven Cheung, a spokesman for Mr. Trump, emphasizing that it was an attempt to interfere with the election and that Mr. Bragg “should instead focus on disrupting New York.” “Cleaning up York”. and to local crime.
On a personal level, Mr. Trump is deeply unhappy with the case. It involves sordidness in his personal life and angered him when the hush-money details became public in 2018, when he was president. He has made it clear to his employees that he wants it gone.
But politically, Trump’s advisers have exploited the hush money indictment to great effect. It was the first of four charges he faced in the 2024 primary cycle, boosting his fundraising and prompting wary Republicans – including his opponents – to question the allegations.
The Trump team’s approach since charging Bragg has been to portray his entire criminal revelations – 91 crimes in all – as part of a grand conspiracy by President Biden and Democrats to stop him.
“This is all coming from the DOJ, this is all coming from Washington,” Trump said after the hearing that set the trial date, extending his baseless claim to several civil lawsuits he is facing. He had tried again to delay the proceedings, but to no avail.
“It’s all rigged – it’s a rigged state, it’s a rigged city, it’s a disgrace,” Trump said, shortly after the judge, Judge Juan M. Merchan, said the case was “serious Allegations” of covering up a bribe payment could influence an election.
Mr. Trump offered no support for his assertion that every legal case he has faced was and never has been exploited from the top down.
And there is a significant disadvantage for him if a local trial takes place: Unlike the federal cases, Mr. Trump cannot attempt to pardon himself if he becomes president again. Still, questions remain about the practical reality of imposing a prison sentence on a president-elect in a local case.
And as for the pure political optics leading up to Election Day, the hush-money trial starting first means a month of intense media attention focused on matters that may be less troubling to the public than they would be if the trial was aimed at undermining the federal election would take place in Washington had, as expected, gone first.
“You can find many witnesses who will argue that this was not unreasonable, that it has been done this way all along, and that the willingness to pay it is not, in fact, an admission of any guilt, but that he is not the public “And that happens quite often,” said Newt Gingrich, the Republican former speaker of the House of Representatives and an ally of Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump’s allies have repeatedly pointed out that Mr. Bragg is a Democrat and that his predecessor, along with federal prosecutors, did not file charges related to the facts of the case, underscoring his victim claims. (Mr. Bragg represents a district where Democrats make up the vast majority of voters).
Mr. Trump complained Thursday that the trial would keep him away from the campaign. But in January he decided to take part in two civil trials that he was not required to attend, partly because, as an adviser said privately, he viewed the appearances as campaign events.
The Trump campaign was preparing for evening events with Mr. Trump in New York and other locations during the hush money trial.
“I can’t emphasize this enough,” Mr. Gingrich said. “Donald Trump is not a candidate. Donald Trump is the leader of a movement, and movement leaders are psychologically fundamentally different from candidates.” The reason, he said, is because his supporters are “followers.” They are not voters.”
Mr. Trump is testing the limits of how his political campaign can take advantage of the criminal justice system.
The key witness in the case, Michael D. Cohen, worked for Mr. Trump for years and gave testimony at a House hearing in 2019 that helped advance the New York attorney general’s successful civil fraud case against Mr. Trump and his company. Mr. Trump and his allies have repeatedly denounced Mr. Cohen, who has revealed his experiences working for the former president in a tell-all book and in interviews.
A parade of other witnesses from this period could also provide testimony that is problematic for him.
And in three separate Manhattan trials over the past two years, three jurors have ruled against Mr. Trump or his companies. Some strategists argue that while making Mr. Bragg the villain might work politically with Republicans, it won’t have any major impact.
“I think the mistake Trump is making is that ultimately this will not be Alvin Bragg, but a jury of his fellow citizens, and Americans respect the jury system and take jury verdicts seriously,” said Geoff Garin , a Democratic pollster.
Yet Mr. Trump was elected in 2016 despite a long series of negative incidents related to his character. And polls vary as to how many of his supporters who say they support him would abandon him if he were convicted in a criminal case.
“After the last eight years, this self-selection is enough to say that they won’t have much difficulty explaining an adverse legal decision, let alone one on dubious grounds,” said Liam Donovan, a Republican strategist.
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2024-02-16 10:30:11
www.nytimes.com
