In this pool photo distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks to students and industrial workers of the Chelyabinsk region at the Stankomash plant in Chelyabinsk on February 16, 2024.
Alexander Ryumin | Afp | Getty Images
A new dispute between Washington and Moscow has raised alarm about the potential risk of a space-based nuclear satellite attack that could wreak havoc on critical communications systems on Earth.
Russia denied US claims that it was developing a space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapon. President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday the Kremlin was “categorically opposed” to the use of nuclear weapons in space and accused the White House of trying to scare lawmakers over a new aid package for Ukraine.
This came after a Reuters report surfaced earlier on Tuesday, citing a source, saying the US believes Moscow is developing a space nuclear missile whose detonation could disable the satellites that underpin critical US infrastructure , including military communications and cellular services. CNBC could not independently verify the report.
Last week, alarm bells about Russia’s nuclear advances began to ring when House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner warned of a “serious national security threat” related to Russia’s capabilities in space.
President Joe Biden later said Moscow appeared to be developing an anti-satellite weapon, but noted that it did not pose an urgent “nuclear threat” to the U.S. population and said he hoped Russia would not use it. However, a source familiar with the matter told Bloomberg that such a capability could be launched into orbit as early as this year.
It is an indiscriminate weapon. The detonation would be omnidirectional.
Kari Bingen
Director of the Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic International Studies.
Analysts told CNBC that the use of such a weapon could cause “indiscriminate” damage and have a devastating impact on the systems that people rely on for everyday services such as payments, GPS navigation and even the weather.
“Space is an essential part of our daily lives, whether we are aware of it or not,” said Kari Bingen, director of the Aerospace Security Project and senior fellow in the international security program at the Center for Strategic International Studies.
What are space nuclear weapons and what disruptions could they cause?
Space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapons – or so-called space nuclear weapons – are a type of weapon designed to damage or destroy satellite systems. This can serve strategic purposes, such as disabling an adversary’s military operations, or disruptive goals, such as disabling civilian telecommunications infrastructure.
A space rocket could be deployed from either Earth or space, ultimately producing a powerful electromagnetic pulse or electrical surge that could destroy satellites and destroy electronic systems. The release of radiation into the Earth’s magnetic field could also harm space-based satellites over time – although radiation is unlikely to cause direct harm to humans.
“It’s an indiscriminate weapon,” Bingen said. “The detonation would be omnidirectional.”
To date, no such weapon has been used in warfare, although China, Russia and the US have all used it to shoot down their own satellites as a show of military might.
A hostile operation could have serious consequences for the extensive global satellite network.
On November 27, 2023, a satellite dish will be placed in front of the full moon in Bogotá.
Juan Barreto | Afp | Getty Images
According to the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, there were nearly 7,800 operational satellites in Earth orbit as of April 2023, supporting everything from telephone and internet networks to televisions, financial services, agricultural systems and space surveillance.
Satellites are also crucial to military operations as they help gather intelligence, detect missile launches, and enable navigation and communications. For example, Starlink, Elon Musk’s own satellite network, ensured uninterrupted communications for Ukrainian forces on the battlefield early in the war – although concerns have since been raised that Russia is co-opting such services in occupied territories.
The exact nature of a Russian-made anti-satellite system is currently unclear. However, analysts told Reuters that they expect the nuclear power to be used more to blind, jam or fry the electronics inside satellites – and not a nuclear warhead that launches them should.
The potential impact of an anti-satellite attack would also depend on the altitude of the target device and its proximity to other satellites. Analysts told Bloomberg that damage to a satellite in low Earth orbit – the default position of most commercial satellites – could silence other satellites hundreds of kilometers away.
“It all depends on where a detonation would occur and which satellites are nearby,” Bingen said.
How likely is an anti-satellite attack?
The use of a space-based nuclear weapon would represent a major advance in Russia’s military capabilities and a serious escalation of geopolitical tensions.
The US has already said it believes the system Russia is developing would violate the Outer Space Treaty – a 1967 treaty that prohibits signatories, including Russia and the US, from “any objects containing nuclear weapons or otherwise carrying weapons, into Earth’s orbit. weapons of mass destruction.”
Furthermore, it would signal a direct attempt to undermine U.S. national and economic security.
“She [Russia] “We have observed how important space capabilities are to our national security and our economic viability,” Bingen said.
It’s incredibly difficult to defend yourself against it. There is no patent solution.
Kari Bingen
Director of the Aerospace Security Project and Senior Fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic International Studies.
Given these vulnerabilities, the United States has changed its space architecture strategy over recent administrations, opting for more distributed models consisting of more numerous and smaller satellites. However, significant vulnerabilities remain.
“It’s incredibly difficult to defend yourself against it. There is no panacea,” said Bingen.
The threat of nuclear conflict has increased since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, marking a retreat from Cold War-era arms control treaties. In 2023, Putin suspended Russia’s compliance with the New START Treaty, the last remaining agreement limiting the size of the U.S. and Russia’s nuclear arsenals.
Still, Bingen said she believes the use of such a tool remains a “weapon of last resort” for Russia.
“It would cross a nuclear threshold, so this is still an incredibly serious decision. “I have to assume it’s more of a weapon of last resort,” she said.
The next military frontier
Space is often positioned as the next geopolitical frontier and represents a new arena for military combat and international disputes.
According to the latest figures from the nonprofit U.S. Space Foundation, spending on space defense rose to an estimated $54 billion in 2022, up from $45 billion the previous year. The US was seen as a pioneer, although the report acknowledged that it was more difficult for Russia and China to obtain official figures.
NATO’s secretary general told CNBC on Saturday that the military alliance has long been aware of the “challenges and threats” of space and that it stands ready to deter any space-based attack.
A 2021 revision of NATO’s space policy said an attack on, from or within space would pose a “clear challenge” to the alliance and could lead to invocation of its mutual defense clause in Article 5.
“NATO stands ready to defend all allies against any threat in any domain,” he told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday.
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2024-02-22 12:05:27
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