Politics and economics have always been intertwined, often in ways that were puzzling in real time.
We are living in another one of those confusing moments.
With the Super Tuesday primary results and several key Supreme Court rulings behind us, it looks like voters are in for a rematch between President Biden and his immediate predecessor, Donald J. Trump.
The surveys show that many Americans perceive this competition as the burden reserved for root canals or colonoscopies. Democrats tend to view Mr. Trump as a villain who has committed a series of misdeeds that include conspiring to overturn the results of the last presidential election. At the same time, many Trump supporters view Mr. Biden as a tax- and spending-guzzling political hack.
The prospect of that dreaded rematch sent me back to the history books, economic and market data, looking for precedents and parallels. I found that repeat appearances in which former major-party presidential candidates ran again, sometimes against incumbents they had defeated, have happened many times before, although not since 1956.
The current campaign poses a mystery. Currently, economic data suggests that slowing inflation, robust economic growth and a bull market could provide Mr. Biden with strong tailwinds through November. The president devoted much of his State of the Union address Thursday to what he called a remarkably strong economy.
But surveys show that the electorate does not yet have much confidence in him for these beneficial developments.
While this election is unique, as elections always are, there have been numerous presidential rematches in the past and instances where the economy and markets really played a role, even if it wasn’t always obvious at the time .
So here is a whirling, highly selective tour of US history.
When two bald men ran twice
There have been three rematches since the Civil War.
The last time was 68 years ago, when President Dwight D. Eisenhower, a Republican, beat Adlai E. Stevenson II, the Democratic former governor of Illinois, for the second time.
At the time, only about half of American households had televisions, which is why it may have been the last presidential election between two bald men. They relied on their achievements, their character and, in Mr. Stevenson’s case, their wit.
But in retrospect it doesn’t look like fair competition. Part of it was straightforward politics. Mr. Eisenhower, who had commanded the victorious Allied forces in World War II, was so popular that he could have run as a Democrat if he had wanted to. In fact, in 1947, Harry S. Truman, Eisenhower’s immediate predecessor as president, offered to run for vice president in 1948 if Eisenhower was the Democratic leader, but Eisenhower declined. A secret Truman diary published in 2003 revealed the then-unknown exchange.
When Eisenhower decided to run as a Republican in 1952, he was effectively appointed president. “I like Ike” was his campaign slogan, and the war hero never had to say much about politics.
In contrast, Stevenson was urbane and eloquent, a true liberal “egghead” (a term often used to describe him). He spoke idealistically about the complexities of policymaking. “Let’s reason with the American people,” he said. “Let’s tell them the truth that without pain there is no gain.”
It’s not just that this approach was ineffective against a well-loved character. It is also the case that economics worked on behalf of the Eisenhower administration in ways that were not fully appreciated at the time.
A new study by three economists—Gillian Brunet of Smith, Eric Hilt of Wellesley, and Matthew S. Jaremski of Utah State—found that by the late 1940s, nearly 80 percent of American households owned war bonds. But high inflation caused their value to fall sharply. The Eisenhower administration lowered inflation, and war bond holders took notice. There were more votes for Eisenhower in the most property-rich counties.
The stock market was also strong. During the Eisenhower administration, the Dow Jones Industrial Average averaged an annual return of 10.4 percent, the sixth-best for a presidency since 1900, according to Bespoke Investment Group, an independent research firm.
Note that stock returns during the Trump administration were even higher at 12 percent on an annual basis, ranking fourth, behind only Presidents Calvin Coolidge, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. According to FactSet, the Biden administration’s annual return so far is just 7.1 percent. At that pace, Mr. Biden would rank 11th among presidents since 1900 — just above Warren G. Harding and below Truman.
It is obvious that it is not just the economy that matters. There were three recessions during the Eisenhower administration, and in 1956 the market declined. But his enduring political standing as the Cold War intensified and the impact of lower inflation on voter attitudes insulated him from economic problems.
Previous matchups
Even further back in history, many presidents tried unsuccessfully to retake the White House. President Herbert Hoover, for example, unceremoniously defeated by Franklin Delano Roosevelt in 1932 – and the Great Depression that destroyed him politically – sought the Republican nomination in 1940, but it went instead to Wendell Willkie, a prominent energy executive.
Considering only those who made it to the actual presidential election, there have been two additional groups of repeat presidential candidates since the Civil War:
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William Jennings Bryan ran unsuccessfully as a Democrat in 1900 against President William McKinley, the Republican who had defeated him four years earlier. Bryan ran for president a third time, against President William Howard Taft, but never won. He is perhaps best known for his speech at the Democratic National Convention in 1896, in which he argued that the gold standard and its deflationary effects hurt workers and farmers and enriched bankers and investors. “Thou shalt not crucify mankind on a cross of gold,” he said.
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Grover Cleveland was the only president to lose re-election and then defeat the man who defeated him in the next election. Cleveland was a former mayor of Buffalo (no, not Cleveland!) and became the first Democratic president after the Civil War in 1885. In 1888 he lost to Benjamin Harrison, a Republican. Four years later, Cleveland competed again and defeated Harrison. This is the precedent that Trump supporters want to highlight.
Note that Cleveland was interested in a third term, but was unlucky enough to experience a major banking panic and two severe recessions (then known as depressions). His party turned to Bryan in 1896, who opposed many of Cleveland’s policies.
In addition to these rematches, there was an instance in which a former president faced off against his successor.
President Theodore Roosevelt, who left office at the height of his popularity, decided to run again against Taft, his Republican successor, four years later in 1912.
The economy was a major factor in Roosevelt’s decision to run and also in his failure to win re-election. He was perhaps the greatest leader of the progressive movement that called for the breakup of monopolies and the protection of consumers. Taft accepted these requests only half-heartedly. Failed to secure the Republican nomination, Roosevelt ran on the Progressive ticket. Eugene Debs also ran as a socialist.
But Democrat Woodrow Wilson defeated them all by claiming the progressive economic mantle. He then supported antitrust legislation and the creation of the Federal Trade Commission. However, Wilson appointed a Cabinet that included overt racists and promulgated segregationist policies, measures that tarnished his progressive luster.
Back to top
Before the Civil War, there were at least three rematches that began shortly before the start of the Republic:
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Martin Van Buren, a Democrat who had been President Andrew Jackson’s vice president, defeated William Henry Harrison (grandfather of Benjamin) and two other candidates in 1836. But the financial panic of 1837 and a severe depression ruined his prospects for re-election. Harrison ran again and beat him, but died on his 32nd day as president.
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John Quincy Adams defeated Jackson and two other candidates in 1824 in a deadlock election that went to the House of Representatives. Jackson claimed that Adams had made a “corrupt deal” with House Speaker Henry Clay, who was another candidate, and immediately began campaigning to remove the president. Adams and Clay agreed on the need for extensive development of roads, canals, and scientific research. In the rematch of 1828, Jackson won and became president.
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John Adams, John Quincy’s father and George Washington’s vice president, ran against Thomas Jefferson twice in bitter contests. The first time, in 1796, Adams won. In the second case, Jefferson prevailed in 1800. In his second term, Jefferson acquired the Louisiana Territory from France, significantly expanding U.S. territory.
All of these competitions had economic components and all had ugly moments.
Biden-Trump Round 2 is not the president’s first rematch, nor the first time that economic factors are difficult to discern, or even the first period of extreme political polarization.
In fact, as the election rematch moves forward in earnest, the most important lesson we can take from this story may be the simplest. The country has endured unbearably contentious times before.
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2024-03-08 15:51:25
www.nytimes.com
